Hull City 1-1 West Brom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates West Brom at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hull City vs West Brom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The MKM Stadium plays host to Hull City versus West Brom in Championship, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Saturday 24 February 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Hull City's overall Championship record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at The MKM Stadium, Hull City have gone 6W 0D 4L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
West Brom have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
West Brom away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Hull City, 1.90 for West Brom — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
West Brom hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 5 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 1–3 with West Brom winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. West Brom have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Hull City half-time and goal-timing data (79 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
West Brom half-time and goal-timing data (79 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 56% versus West Brom 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 49% | West Brom 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.04 xG and West Brom 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.909 / defence 0.894 | West Brom attack 0.976 / defence 0.828. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.260. Data: 79 Hull City games / 79 West Brom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 34% | Draw 30% | West Brom 37%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | West Brom 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, West Brom are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on West Brom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Hull City 40% | West Brom 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs West Brom | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 34% | Draw 30% | West Brom 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Hull City 1.04 / West Brom 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.909 / def 0.894 | West Brom attack 0.976 / def 0.828 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: West Brom (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.10
West Brom xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs West Brom kick off?
Hull City vs West Brom kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs West Brom?
Hull City 1 - 1 West Brom.
Where is Hull City vs West Brom being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs West Brom part of?
Hull City vs West Brom is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs West Brom?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 34% chance of winning, West Brom a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs West Brom?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Hull City and West Brom will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs West Brom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and West Brom?
Record (5 meetings): Hull City 1W | Draws 0 | West Brom 4W.
What form are Hull City and West Brom in?
Hull City (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. West Brom (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hull City's attack rating (0.91) and West Brom's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — West Brom's attack (0.98x) against Hull City's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 79/79 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
34%
2.97
30%
3.38
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.14
1.10
West Brom xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
11%
8.91
13%
7.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 12.9 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs West Brom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Hull City and West Brom expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Hull City and 1.10 for West Brom, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs West Brom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 79 outings, Hull City have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 30W 22D 27L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
West Brom's form line: 34W 19D 26L from 79 games, 1.53 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Hull City against 1.53 for West Brom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Hull City have posted 1.49 PPG from 39 outings (16W 10D 13L).
On the road, West Brom have gone 12W 9D 18L from 39 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Hull City are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; West Brom are on 1.35 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: West Brom in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 79 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Current Season
West Brom
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and West Brom in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 30W 22D 27L in their last 79 games (1.42 PPG), while West Brom have gone 34W 19D 26L in their last 79 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or West Brom away?
Hull City's home record (1.49 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.49 PPG; West Brom away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Hull City or West Brom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hull City have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, West Brom in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: West Brom won 5-2 on 20 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hull City have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against West Brom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Hull City
2
Draws
6
West Brom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and West Brom?
From 10 meetings on record, Hull City have won 2, West Brom have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and West Brom last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when West Brom 3-0 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and West Brom?
West Brom have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 51%, West Brom 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Hull City) and 46% (West Brom).
On the defensive side: Hull City keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Hull City have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / West Brom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play West Brom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Hull City's recent matches and 54% of West Brom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hull City vs West Brom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Hull City's recent games and 46% of West Brom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and West Brom tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, West Brom in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hull City and West Brom share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City and West Brom finished level at 1-1 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.04 xG and West Brom 1.10 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.91 / defence 0.89 against West Brom attack 0.98 / defence 0.83, drawn from 79/79 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 34% | Draw 30% | West Brom 37%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 49%, West Brom 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
West Brom's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.42 PPG, West Brom 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.