Shandong Luneng 5-0 Wuhan Zall – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 83% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Zall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Wuhan Zall make the trip to Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium to face Shandong Luneng in Super League, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Saturday 26 November 2022 at 09:30 UTC.
Form
Shandong Luneng (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shandong Luneng have posted 9W 1D 0L at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Shandong Luneng are significantly better at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Wuhan Zall have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Zall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Wuhan Zall have gone 1W 0D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Shandong Luneng's 2.30 PPG return is 1.90 points per game ahead of Wuhan Zall's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Shandong Luneng, 0 for Wuhan Zall and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 2–1 with Shandong Luneng winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Shandong Luneng — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Wuhan Zall — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 50% versus Wuhan Zall 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shandong Luneng 58% | Wuhan Zall 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 2.92 xG and Wuhan Zall 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.473 / defence 0.611 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.796 / defence 1.314. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.357. Shandong Luneng carry an above-average attack strength of 1.473 — their λ of 2.92 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Wuhan Zall bring a strong defensive rating of 1.314 — this is suppressing Shandong Luneng's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Shandong Luneng's defence rating of 0.611 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Shandong Luneng games / 40 Wuhan Zall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 83% | Draw 12% | Wuhan Zall 5%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 1.20 | Draw 8.33 | Wuhan Zall 20.00. The model has a clear lean to Shandong Luneng (83%) — a 78pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shandong Luneng are the pick at 83% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.58 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Shandong Luneng 40% | Wuhan Zall 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Zall | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Nov 2022, 09:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 83% | Draw 12% | Wuhan Zall 5% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 46% | xG Shandong Luneng 2.92 / Wuhan Zall 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.473 / def 0.611 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.796 / def 1.314 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (83%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.92
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Wuhan Zall xG
46%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Zall kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Zall kicked off at 09:30 on Saturday 26 November 2022 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Zall?
Shandong Luneng 5 - 0 Wuhan Zall.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Zall being played?
The match is being played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Zall part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Zall is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Zall?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 83% chance of winning, Wuhan Zall a 5% chance, and a 12% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Zall?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Wuhan Zall will score (BTTS).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Zall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Wuhan Zall?
Record (1 meetings): Shandong Luneng 1W | Draws 0 | Wuhan Zall 0W.
What form are Shandong Luneng and Wuhan Zall in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Wuhan Zall (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Shandong Luneng's attacking strength (1.47x league average) is weighed against Wuhan Zall's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.92. Flip it around — Wuhan Zall's attack (0.80x) against Shandong Luneng's defence (0.61x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.9%. Close behind: 3-0 (11.6%), 4-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
83%
1.21
12%
8.22
5%
18.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
11.6%
Home win
4 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.92
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
3.58
0.66
Wuhan Zall xG
1.21
83%
Home win
8.22
12%
Draw
18.90
5%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
52%
1.94
5%
18.45
Win to Nil
43%
2.35
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 7.9 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.6 | 7.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Zall?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Wuhan Zall expected to score?
The model projects 2.92 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 0.66 for Wuhan Zall, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Zall?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 83%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shandong Luneng come into this having played 48 games, going 35W 8D 5L for 2.35 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wuhan Zall sit at 0.85 PPG from 48 outings (9W 14D 25L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Wuhan Zall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shandong Luneng carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Wuhan Zall — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Shandong Luneng's home form reads 20W 3D 0L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.74 PPG return.
Away from home, Wuhan Zall have taken 0.74 points per game from 23 outings (4W 5D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shandong Luneng are averaging 2.25 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Zall are on 1.04 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Zall in 60%.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Blended
Wuhan Zall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shandong Luneng and Wuhan Zall in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 35W 8D 5L in their last 48 games (2.35 PPG), while Wuhan Zall have gone 9W 14D 25L in their last 48 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Wuhan Zall away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.74 PPG; Wuhan Zall away: 0.74 PPG.
Have Shandong Luneng or Wuhan Zall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Wuhan Zall in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Shandong Luneng
0
Draws
0
Wuhan Zall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Wuhan Zall?
From 2 meetings on record, Shandong Luneng have won 2, Wuhan Zall have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Wuhan Zall last play each other?
They last met on 26 November 2022, when Shandong Luneng 5-0 Wuhan Zall.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Wuhan Zall?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Wuhan Zall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shandong Luneng 44%, Wuhan Zall 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Shandong Luneng) and 52% (Wuhan Zall).
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Wuhan Zall in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Wuhan Zall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shandong Luneng play Wuhan Zall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Shandong Luneng's recent matches and 44% of Wuhan Zall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Zall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Shandong Luneng's recent games and 52% of Wuhan Zall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shandong Luneng and Wuhan Zall tend to score early?
Shandong Luneng have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Wuhan Zall in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shandong Luneng run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Wuhan Zall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Wuhan Zall 5-0 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 2.92 xG and Wuhan Zall 0.66 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Shandong Luneng beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.47 / defence 0.61 against Wuhan Zall attack 0.80 / defence 1.31, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 83% | Draw 12% | Wuhan Zall 5%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 83%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 58%, Wuhan Zall 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Wuhan Zall's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 0.85. That form edge translated into the three points. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.30 average — above their attacking norm. Wuhan Zall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.