Hebei Zhongji 1-6 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown at 84% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hebei Zhongji vs Hangzhou Greentown encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Hebei Zhongji welcome Hangzhou Greentown to Mission Hills Football Base Stadium in Super League (matchday 27). Kick-off is Saturday 26 November 2022 at 11:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Hebei Zhongji stand at 0W 0D 10L — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 3.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.

Hebei Zhongji at home: 1W 0D 9L from their last 10 home games — 0.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 3.50 conceded per game.

Hangzhou Greentown — last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 4W 6D 0L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hangzhou Greentown are 1.90 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Hebei Zhongji, 1 for Hangzhou Greentown and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 28 Aug 2022, ended Hebei Zhongji 0–3 Hangzhou Greentown — a Hangzhou Greentown win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Hebei Zhongji in-play and half-time data (last 28 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 61% of games.

Hangzhou Greentown in-play and half-time data (last 28 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hebei Zhongji 39% versus Hangzhou Greentown 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hebei Zhongji 75% | Hangzhou Greentown 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hebei Zhongji 0.78 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 3.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.641 / defence 1.959 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.230 / defence 0.803. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.351. Hebei Zhongji's attack rating of 0.641 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.78. Hangzhou Greentown have an above-average attack rating of 1.230, which lifts their away xG to 3.26. Hebei Zhongji's defence rating of 1.959 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Hangzhou Greentown's projected output up. Data: built from Hebei Zhongji's last 40 games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 26.

Result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 5% | Draw 11% | Hangzhou Greentown 84%. Fair-value odds: Hebei Zhongji 19.16 | Draw 9.35 | Hangzhou Greentown 1.19. The model has a clear lean to Hangzhou Greentown (84%) — a 73pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 4.04. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.04 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Hangzhou Greentown at 84% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

The Poisson model projects 4.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 77% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hebei Zhongji's last 10 home games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hebei Zhongji 40% (last 10 home games) | Hangzhou Greentown 70% (last 10 away games).

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