Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-1 Al-Jazira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 52%, yet in-form Al-Jazira provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Al-Jazira travel to Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium to take on Al-Ittihad Kalba in Pro League (matchday 9). The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 December 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Al-Jazira have recorded 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al-Jazira away from home: 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Al-Jazira's 2.00 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Al-Ittihad Kalba's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's games and 70% of Al-Jazira's (from Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 10 home games and Al-Jazira's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 1, Al-Jazira 3, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.6 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 14 Mar 2024, ended Al-Ittihad Kalba 2–2 Al-Jazira — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ittihad Kalba in-play tendencies (last 33 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Al-Jazira in-play tendencies (last 33 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 64%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad Kalba 64% and Al-Jazira 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Ittihad Kalba 70% | Al-Jazira 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.22 xG and Al-Jazira 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.109 / defence 0.852 | Al-Jazira attack 1.116 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.844 / away 1.583. Data: built from Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 33 games and Al-Jazira's last 34.
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 52% | Draw 23% | Al-Jazira 25%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.91 | Draw 4.34 | Al-Jazira 4.08. Al-Ittihad Kalba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS Yes probability 71% | Total xG 3.72. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.72 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% — both xG figures (2.22 / 1.50) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad Kalba are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Jazira (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad Kalba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.72 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 10 home games and Al-Jazira's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Jazira 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira | Competition: Pro League, matchday 9 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 December 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 52% | Draw 23% | Al-Jazira 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% (Under 28%) | BTTS Yes 71% (No 29%) | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.22 / Al-Jazira 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.109 / def 0.852 | Al-Jazira attack 1.116 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.844 / away 1.583 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad Kalba (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.22
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Al-Jazira xG
71%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira FAQs
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira?
Al-Ittihad Kalba 1 - 1 Al-Jazira.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira is a Pro League fixture (matchday 9) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 52% chance of winning, Al-Jazira a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad Kalba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Ittihad Kalba's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Al-Jazira's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.22. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Jazira's attack versus Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 33 games and Al-Jazira's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad Kalba Win
52%
1.91
23%
4.34
25%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.22
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
3.72
1.50
Al-Jazira xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
4.08
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.41
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
11%
9.19
Win to Nil
12%
8.59
3%
37.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 8.1 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira expected to score?
The model projects 2.22 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1.50 for Al-Jazira, a combined total of 3.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 33 outings, Al-Ittihad Kalba have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 9W 10D 14L record — W-W-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Al-Jazira's form line: 13W 9D 11L from 33 games, 1.45 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ittihad Kalba on 1.12 PPG, Al-Jazira on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Ittihad Kalba have posted 1.06 PPG from their last 16 home games (4W 5D 7L).
On the road, Al-Jazira have gone 4W 5D 7L from their last 16 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ittihad Kalba are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Al-Jazira are on 2.06 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad Kalba have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Al-Jazira in 73%.
Last 33 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Early Season
Al-Jazira
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba (Home) vs Al-Jazira (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Early Season
Al-Jazira
Blended
❓ Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira Form FAQs
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 9W 10D 14L in their last 33 games (1.12 PPG), while Al-Jazira have gone 13W 9D 11L in their last 33 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home or Al-Jazira away?
Al-Ittihad Kalba's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home: 1.06 PPG; Al-Jazira away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from March 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 23 Sep 2023, when Al-Jazira won Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-4 Al-Jazira.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's record when hosting Al-Jazira specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al-Ittihad Kalba
4
Draws
4
Al-Jazira
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 2, Al-Jazira have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-2 Al-Jazira.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Ittihad Kalba at 62%, Al-Jazira at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 69% for Al-Jazira. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 69% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad Kalba keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Al-Jazira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's games and 69% of Al-Jazira's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's matches and 69% of Al-Jazira's.
Do Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's recent matches and 81% of Al-Jazira's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira finished level at 1-1 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.22 xG and Al-Jazira 1.50 xG, a combined 3.72. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Ittihad Kalba fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.11 / defence 0.85 against Al-Jazira attack 1.12 / defence 1.08, drawn from 33/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 52% | Draw 23% | Al-Jazira 25%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 70%, Al-Jazira 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Jazira's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.12 PPG, Al-Jazira 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.