Al-Jazira 1-3 Al Ain – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Jazira at 60% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Jazira face Al Ain.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Jazira and Al Ain meet at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium in Pro League (matchday 10). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 15 December 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Current Form
Al-Jazira's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Al-Jazira have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Ain have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Al Ain's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 road games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Al-Jazira's last 10 home games and Al Ain's last 10 away games) — Al-Jazira have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al Ain in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Al-Jazira, 3 for Al Ain and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 2 Jun 2024, ended Al-Jazira 2–1 Al Ain — a Al-Jazira win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Al-Jazira half-time and goal-timing data (last 34 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 94% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
Al Ain half-time and goal-timing data (last 34 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 59%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Jazira 74% and Al Ain 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Jazira 68% | Al Ain 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Jazira 2.85 xG and Al Ain 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Jazira attack 1.290 / defence 0.829 | Al Ain attack 1.373 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.868 / away 1.522. Al-Jazira carry an above-average attack rating of 1.290 — their 2.85 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Al Ain have an above-average attack rating of 1.373, which lifts their away xG to 1.73. Data: built from Al-Jazira's last 35 games and Al Ain's last 34.
Result probabilities: Al-Jazira 60% | Draw 19% | Al Ain 21%. Fair-value odds: Al-Jazira 1.67 | Draw 5.16 | Al Ain 4.80. The model has a clear lean to Al-Jazira (60%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 84% | BTTS Yes probability 79% | Total xG 4.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 84% — a total xG of 4.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 79% — both xG figures (2.85 / 1.73) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Jazira at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 4.58 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 84% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Jazira's last 10 home games and Al Ain's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 79% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Jazira 60% (last 10 home games) | Al Ain 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Jazira vs Al Ain | Competition: Pro League, matchday 10 | Venue: Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 15 December 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Jazira 60% | Draw 19% | Al Ain 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 84% (Under 16%) | BTTS Yes 79% (No 21%) | xG Al-Jazira 2.85 / Al Ain 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Jazira attack 1.290 / def 0.829 | Al Ain attack 1.373 / def 1.182 | league avg home 1.868 / away 1.522 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.85
Al-Jazira xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Al Ain xG
79%
BTTS
95%
Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
67%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Jazira vs Al Ain FAQs
What time does Al-Jazira vs Al Ain kick off?
Al-Jazira vs Al Ain kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Sunday 15 December 2024 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Jazira vs Al Ain?
Al-Jazira 1 - 3 Al Ain.
Where is Al-Jazira vs Al Ain being played?
The match is being played at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Jazira vs Al Ain part of?
Al-Jazira vs Al Ain is a Pro League fixture (matchday 10) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Jazira vs Al Ain?
Our statistical model gives Al-Jazira a 60% chance of winning, Al Ain a 21% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Jazira vs Al Ain?
Our model estimates a 79% probability that both Al-Jazira and Al Ain will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Jazira vs Al Ain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 84%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Jazira's attack at 1.29x the league average against Al Ain's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 2.85 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Ain's attack (1.37x) against Al-Jazira's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from Al-Jazira's last 35 games and Al Ain's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 7.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (6.8%), 2-2 (6.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 20% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
60%
1.67
19%
5.16
21%
4.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
6.8%
Home win
2 – 2
6.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.85
Al-Jazira xG
Total xG
4.58
1.73
Al Ain xG
1.67
60%
Home win
5.16
19%
Draw
4.80
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
84%
Over 2.5
1.19
16%
Under 2.5
6.25
67%
Over 3.5
1.49
33%
Under 3.5
3.03
48%
Over 4.5
2.08
52%
Under 4.5
1.92
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
79%
BTTS Yes
1.27
21%
BTTS No
4.69
Clean Sheet
18%
5.65
6%
17.24
Win to Nil
11%
9.45
1%
82.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 6.8 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Jazira vs Al Ain Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Jazira vs Al Ain?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.2%.
How many goals are Al-Jazira and Al Ain expected to score?
The model projects 2.85 expected goals for Al-Jazira and 1.73 for Al Ain, a combined total of 4.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Jazira vs Al Ain?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 34 outings, Al-Jazira have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 13W 10D 11L record — W-W-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Al Ain's form line: 18W 6D 10L from 34 games, 1.76 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Al-Jazira against 1.76 for Al Ain. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Jazira have posted 1.94 PPG from their last 16 home games (9W 4D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Al-Jazira are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al Ain have gone 10W 3D 3L from their last 16 away games — 2.06 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Jazira are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Al Ain are on 2.32 scored and 1.50 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Jazira have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; Al Ain in 65%.
Last 34 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Jazira
Blended
Al Ain
Blended
Al-Jazira (Home) vs Al Ain (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Jazira
Blended
Al Ain
Blended
❓ Al-Jazira vs Al Ain Form FAQs
What form are Al-Jazira and Al Ain in coming into this match?
Al-Jazira have gone 13W 10D 11L in their last 34 games (1.44 PPG), while Al Ain have gone 18W 6D 10L in their last 34 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Jazira at home or Al Ain away?
Al Ain's away record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Jazira at home: 1.94 PPG; Al Ain away: 2.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Al-Jazira and Al Ain, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 6 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Ain won Al Ain 5-0 Al-Jazira on 11 May 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Jazira have gone 2W 0D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al Ain — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al-Jazira
3
Draws
5
Al Ain
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Jazira vs Al Ain H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Al Ain?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Jazira have won 2, Al Ain have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Jazira and Al Ain last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 February 2026: Al-Jazira 0-1 Al Ain.
Who has won more matches between Al-Jazira and Al Ain?
Al Ain have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Al Ain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Al-Jazira, 56% for Al Ain — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Al-Jazira and 69% for Al Ain. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Ain in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Jazira home games / Al Ain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Jazira vs Al Ain Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Jazira and Al Ain matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Al-Jazira's games and 56% of Al Ain's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Jazira and Al Ain matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Al-Jazira's matches and 69% of Al Ain's.
Do Al-Jazira and Al Ain matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 94% of Al-Jazira's recent matches and 88% of Al Ain's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Ain cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al-Jazira.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Ain beat Al-Jazira 1-3 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 2.85 xG and Al Ain 1.73 xG, a combined 4.58. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Jazira fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Al Ain outscored their 1.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 1.29 / defence 0.83 against Al Ain attack 1.37 / defence 1.18, drawn from 35/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 60% | Draw 19% | Al Ain 21%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Al Ain win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 84%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 95% and landed. Over 3.5 was 67% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 79% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 68%, Al Ain 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Jazira's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Al Ain's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Jazira 1.44 PPG, Al Ain 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Ain win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.