Khorfakkan 1-1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (58%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Khorfakkan face Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai make the trip to Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium to face Khorfakkan in Pro League (matchday 9). The match kicks off on Sunday 8 December 2024 at 12:45 UK time.
Form
Khorfakkan (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Khorfakkan have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have collected 2.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away from home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are 1.30 PPG clear of Khorfakkan over their recent games (2.50 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the stronger record — 5 wins to Khorfakkan's 0, with 0 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 1 Mar 2024, ended Khorfakkan 0–3 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — a Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 5 of 5 H2H matches, and at 2.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Khorfakkan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 33 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 33 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Khorfakkan 73% and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Khorfakkan 73% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 88%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 1.22 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 0.739 / defence 1.029 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.386 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.855 / away 1.553. Khorfakkan's attack rating of 0.739 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.22. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have an above-average attack rating of 1.386, which lifts their away xG to 2.22. Data: built from Khorfakkan's last 34 games and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's last 33.
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 18% | Draw 24% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 58%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 5.52 | Draw 4.17 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.73. The model has a clear lean to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (58%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.22 / 2.22) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.44 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Khorfakkan's last 10 home games and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's last 10 away games) averaging 3.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Khorfakkan 50% (last 10 home games) | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | Competition: Pro League, matchday 9 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 8 December 2024 at 12:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 18% | Draw 24% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Khorfakkan 1.22 / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.22 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 0.739 / def 1.029 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.386 / def 0.890 | league avg home 1.855 / away 1.553 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
2.22
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
65%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai FAQs
What time does Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kicked off at 12:45 UK time on Sunday 8 December 2024 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Khorfakkan 1 - 1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai part of?
Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is a Pro League fixture (matchday 9) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 18% chance of winning, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 58% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Khorfakkan and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Khorfakkan's attack rating (0.74) and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack (1.39x) against Khorfakkan's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 2.22.
These ratings are built from Khorfakkan's last 34 games and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's last 33 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
18%
5.52
24%
4.17
58%
1.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
0 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
3.44
2.22
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
5.52
18%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
1.73
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
11%
9.18
30%
3.39
Win to Nil
2%
50.69
17%
5.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 7.1 | 7.9 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 2.22 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Khorfakkan's recent record stands at 8W 7D 18L from 33 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, meanwhile, have gone 24W 5D 4L across 33 games — 2.33 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai by 1.39 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Khorfakkan heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Khorfakkan have managed 4W 3D 8L from their last 15 home games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record stands at 10W 3D 2L across their last 15 away games, a 2.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Khorfakkan are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 2.15 conceded per game recently; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are on 2.82 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khorfakkan have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 73%.
Last 33 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Blended
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Early Season
Khorfakkan (Home) vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Khorfakkan
Blended
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Early Season
❓ Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Form FAQs
What form are Khorfakkan and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in coming into this match?
Khorfakkan have gone 8W 7D 18L in their last 33 games (0.94 PPG), while Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 24W 5D 4L in their last 33 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khorfakkan at home or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khorfakkan at home: 1.00 PPG; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away: 2.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 15 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 4-0 Khorfakkan on 23 Apr 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Khorfakkan have gone 0W 1D 5L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Khorfakkan
2
Draws
8
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Recent Meetings
❓ Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Khorfakkan have won 0, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Khorfakkan 1-5 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Who has won more matches between Khorfakkan and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Khorfakkan, 80% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Khorfakkan and 80% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Khorfakkan have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Khorfakkan and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Khorfakkan's games and 80% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Khorfakkan and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Khorfakkan's matches and 80% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's.
Do Khorfakkan and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Khorfakkan's recent matches and 73% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Khorfakkan and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khorfakkan and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai finished level at 1-1 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.22 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.22 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 0.74 / defence 1.03 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.39 / defence 0.89, drawn from 34/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 18% | Draw 24% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 58%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 80% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 73%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 88%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khorfakkan's trading profile (33 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (33 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.53 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.