Al-Ittihad Kalba 3-0 Al Bataeh – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al Bataeh at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Bataeh encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Al Bataeh make the trip to Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium to face Al-Ittihad Kalba in Pro League (matchday 5). The match kicks off on Saturday 5 October 2024 at 17:45 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Al-Ittihad Kalba have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al-Ittihad Kalba's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al Bataeh (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Al Bataeh's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On a straight form reading, Al Bataeh are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 10 home games and Al Bataeh's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's games and 70% of Al Bataeh's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Al-Ittihad Kalba, 2 for Al Bataeh and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Feb 2024, ended Al-Ittihad Kalba 1–2 Al Bataeh — a Al Bataeh win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Al-Ittihad Kalba goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 29 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

Al Bataeh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 29 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad Kalba 69% and Al Bataeh 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Ittihad Kalba 69% | Al Bataeh 69%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al-Ittihad Kalba surrender their half-time lead 42% of the time, while Al Bataeh have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.47 xG and Al Bataeh 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.914 / defence 1.008 | Al Bataeh attack 0.900 / defence 0.837. League average goals — home 1.924 / away 1.730. Data: built from Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 29 games and Al Bataeh's last 30.

Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 36% | Draw 24% | Al Bataeh 40%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.79 | Draw 4.15 | Al Bataeh 2.49. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.47 / 1.57) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Bataeh at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Bataeh if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 10 home games and Al Bataeh's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Ittihad Kalba 70% (last 10 home games) | Al Bataeh 70% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights