Baniyas SC 1-5 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Baniyas SC at 40%, yet in-form Shabab Al Ahli Dubai provide a compelling counter-argument — this Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Shabab Al Ahli Dubai travel to Baniyas Stadium to take on Baniyas SC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 October 2024, 14:10 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Baniyas SC have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Baniyas SC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Baniyas SC at Baniyas Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai stand at 9W 0D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's 2.70 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Baniyas SC's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Baniyas SC, 4 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 0 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2024, ended 1–2 with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Baniyas SC in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Baniyas SC 67% and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Baniyas SC 63% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 90%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baniyas SC 1.86 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baniyas SC attack 1.074 / defence 0.849 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.225 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.970 / away 1.754. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have an above-average attack strength of 1.225 — the away xG of 1.82 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 30 Baniyas SC games / 30 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baniyas SC 40% | Draw 22% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 38%. Fair-value odds: Baniyas SC 2.50 | Draw 4.55 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.68. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.68 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Baniyas SC at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (2.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baniyas SC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Baniyas SC 70% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Baniyas Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Oct 2024, 14:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baniyas SC 40% | Draw 22% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 71% | xG Baniyas SC 1.86 / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Baniyas SC attack 1.074 / def 0.849 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.225 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.970 / away 1.754 • Poisson stance: Baniyas SC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Baniyas SC xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
71%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kick off?
Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kicked off at 14:10 on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Baniyas Stadium.
What was the final score in Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Baniyas SC 1 - 5 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Where is Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai being played?
The match is being played at Baniyas Stadium.
What competition is Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai part of?
Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our statistical model gives Baniyas SC a 40% chance of winning, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 38% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Baniyas SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will score (BTTS).
Will Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Record (6 meetings): Baniyas SC 2W | Draws 0 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 4W.
What form are Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in?
Baniyas SC (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 3.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Baniyas SC's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. The same calculation in reverse, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack versus Baniyas SC's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Baniyas SC Win
40%
2.50
22%
4.62
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Baniyas SC xG
Total xG
3.68
1.82
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
2.50
40%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.42
Clean Sheet
16%
6.18
16%
6.44
Win to Nil
6%
15.48
6%
16.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 8.5 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Baniyas SC and 1.82 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 3.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Baniyas SC come into this having played 30 games, going 9W 6D 15L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Baniyas SC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai sit at 2.33 PPG from 30 outings (22W 4D 4L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.23 PPG clear of Baniyas SC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Baniyas SC's home form reads 7W 3D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.10 PPG overall — Baniyas SC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have taken 2.20 points per game from 15 outings (10W 3D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Baniyas SC are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are on 2.87 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baniyas SC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 73%.
Last 30 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baniyas SC
Early Season
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in coming into this match?
Baniyas SC have gone 9W 6D 15L in their last 30 games (1.10 PPG), while Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 22W 4D 4L in their last 30 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baniyas SC at home or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baniyas SC at home: 1.60 PPG; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away: 2.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Oct 2024, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baniyas SC's record when hosting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Baniyas SC
1
Draws
7
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
From 10 meetings on record, Baniyas SC have won 2, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Baniyas SC 2-2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Who has won more matches between Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Baniyas SC at 67%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Baniyas SC and 80% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baniyas SC home games / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baniyas SC play Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Baniyas SC's games and 73% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Baniyas SC's matches and 80% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's.
Do Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai tend to score early?
Baniyas SC have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shabab Al Ahli Dubai run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Baniyas SC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Baniyas SC 1-5 at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 1.86 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.82 xG, a combined 3.68. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Baniyas SC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai outscored their 1.82 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 1.07 / defence 0.85 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.23 / defence 0.88, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 40% | Draw 22% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 38%, with Baniyas SC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 77% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 63%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 90%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baniyas SC's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.10. That form edge translated into the three points. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.40 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.