Al Bataeh 0-2 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sharjah FC (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Bataeh face Sharjah FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium plays host to Al Bataeh versus Sharjah FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Thursday 26 September 2024 at 14:20 UTC.
Form
Al Bataeh (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al Bataeh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Bataeh's home record at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sharjah FC have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sharjah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sharjah FC's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sharjah FC are 0.60 PPG clear of Al Bataeh in recent Pro League fixtures (2.10 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al Bataeh register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Sharjah FC in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Bataeh lead 0W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al Bataeh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Sharjah FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Bataeh 76% and Sharjah FC 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Bataeh 72% | Sharjah FC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Bataeh 1.88 xG and Sharjah FC 2.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Bataeh attack 1.089 / defence 1.178 | Sharjah FC attack 1.216 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.844 / away 1.589. Sharjah FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.216 — the away xG of 2.28 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 29 Al Bataeh games / 29 Sharjah FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al Bataeh 33% | Draw 20% | Sharjah FC 47%. Fair-value odds: Al Bataeh 3.03 | Draw 5.00 | Sharjah FC 2.13. Sharjah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 76% | Total xG 4.16. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.16 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% reflects that both xG figures (1.88 / 2.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sharjah FC as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 4.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 78% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 4.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 76% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Bataeh 100% | Sharjah FC 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (29 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Bataeh vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 26 Sep 2024, 14:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Bataeh 33% | Draw 20% | Sharjah FC 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 76% | xG Al Bataeh 1.88 / Sharjah FC 2.28 • Poisson strength factors: Al Bataeh attack 1.089 / def 1.178 | Sharjah FC attack 1.216 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.844 / away 1.589 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Al Bataeh xG
Expected Goals
2.28
Sharjah FC xG
76%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Bataeh vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Al Bataeh vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 14:20 on Thursday 26 September 2024 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Bataeh vs Sharjah FC?
Al Bataeh 0 - 2 Sharjah FC.
Where is Al Bataeh vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What competition is Al Bataeh vs Sharjah FC part of?
Al Bataeh vs Sharjah FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Bataeh vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Bataeh a 33% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 47% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Bataeh vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both Al Bataeh and Sharjah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Bataeh vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Sharjah FC?
Record (4 meetings): Al Bataeh 0W | Draws 2 | Sharjah FC 2W.
What form are Al Bataeh and Sharjah FC in?
Al Bataeh (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Sharjah FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al Bataeh's attack at 1.09x the league average against Sharjah FC's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.88 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sharjah FC's attack (1.22x) against Al Bataeh's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 2.28.
The sample (29/29 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 7.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (7.6%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
33%
3.06
20%
5.02
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
1 – 1
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Al Bataeh xG
Total xG
4.16
2.28
Sharjah FC xG
3.06
33%
Home win
5.02
20%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
60%
Over 3.5
1.67
40%
Under 3.5
2.50
40%
Over 4.5
2.50
60%
Under 4.5
1.67
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.31
24%
BTTS No
4.18
Clean Sheet
10%
9.75
15%
6.58
Win to Nil
3%
29.87
7%
13.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 6.7 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Bataeh vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.6%.
How many goals are Al Bataeh and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Al Bataeh and 2.28 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 4.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Bataeh vs Sharjah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Bataeh's recent record stands at 11W 8D 10L from 29 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al Bataeh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sharjah FC, meanwhile, have gone 13W 12D 4L across 29 games — 1.76 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sharjah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Al Bataeh against 1.76 for Sharjah FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al Bataeh have managed 4W 5D 5L from 14 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sharjah FC's away record stands at 7W 5D 2L across 14 trips, a 1.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sharjah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Bataeh are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Sharjah FC are on 2.14 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Bataeh have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games; Sharjah FC in 76%.
Last 29 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Bataeh
Early Season
Sharjah FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Bataeh and Sharjah FC in coming into this match?
Al Bataeh have gone 11W 8D 10L in their last 29 games (1.41 PPG), while Sharjah FC have gone 13W 12D 4L in their last 29 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Bataeh at home or Sharjah FC away?
Sharjah FC's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Bataeh at home: 1.21 PPG; Sharjah FC away: 1.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sharjah FC won 3-0 on 18 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Bataeh have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sharjah FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Al Bataeh
3
Draws
3
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Sharjah FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Bataeh have won 2, Sharjah FC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Bataeh and Sharjah FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Al Bataeh 0-0 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Bataeh and Sharjah FC?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 86% for Al Bataeh, 86% for Sharjah FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Al Bataeh and 64% for Sharjah FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 64% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Bataeh home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Bataeh play Sharjah FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Al Bataeh's games and 86% of Sharjah FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Bataeh vs Sharjah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Al Bataeh's matches and 64% of Sharjah FC's.
Do Al Bataeh and Sharjah FC tend to score early?
Al Bataeh have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Sharjah FC in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sharjah FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al Bataeh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Al Bataeh 0-2 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Bataeh 1.88 xG and Sharjah FC 2.28 xG, a combined 4.16. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al Bataeh fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Bataeh attack 1.09 / defence 1.18 against Sharjah FC attack 1.22 / defence 0.94, drawn from 29/29 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al Bataeh 33% | Draw 20% | Sharjah FC 47%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 60% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Bataeh 72%, Sharjah FC 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 76%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Bataeh's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.
Sharjah FC's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Bataeh 1.41 PPG, Sharjah FC 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sharjah FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.