Osters IF 2-0 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Osters IF at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Osters IF vs Orebro SK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Osters IF welcome Orebro SK to Visma Arena in Superettan (matchday 3). Kick-off is Tuesday 16 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Osters IF have gone 5W 3D 2L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Osters IF's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Orebro SK — last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Orebro SK's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Osters IF are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Osters IF have won 1, Orebro SK 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Oct 2023, ended Osters IF 3–0 Orebro SK — a Osters IF win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Osters IF trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Orebro SK trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osters IF 65% versus Orebro SK 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osters IF 62% | Orebro SK 53%). Note also that Orebro SK surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Osters IF recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 1.70 xG and Orebro SK 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 1.036 / defence 0.970 | Orebro SK attack 1.016 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 0.964. Orebro SK's defence rating of 1.226 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Osters IF's projected output up. Data: built from Osters IF's last 32 games and Orebro SK's last 32. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Osters IF 54% | Draw 26% | Orebro SK 20%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 1.85 | Draw 3.90 | Orebro SK 4.93. Osters IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Osters IF as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osters IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Osters IF's last 10 home games and Orebro SK's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Osters IF 40% (last 10 home games) | Orebro SK 60% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Osters IF 32 games, Orebro SK 32) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs Orebro SK | Competition: Superettan, matchday 3 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 16 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 54% | Draw 26% | Orebro SK 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Osters IF 1.70 / Orebro SK 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 1.036 / def 0.970 | Orebro SK attack 1.016 / def 1.226 | league avg home 1.334 / away 0.964 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Orebro SK xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Osters IF vs Orebro SK FAQs
What time does Osters IF vs Orebro SK kick off?
Osters IF vs Orebro SK kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Tuesday 16 April 2024 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs Orebro SK?
Osters IF 2 - 0 Orebro SK.
Where is Osters IF vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs Orebro SK part of?
Osters IF vs Orebro SK is a Superettan fixture (matchday 3) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 54% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Osters IF and Orebro SK will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Osters IF vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Osters IF's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Orebro SK's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. The same calculation in reverse, Orebro SK's attack versus Osters IF's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Osters IF's last 32 games and Orebro SK's last 32, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
54%
1.85
26%
3.90
20%
4.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Osters IF xG
Total xG
2.65
0.95
Orebro SK xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
4.93
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
4%
26.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 11.4 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Osters IF vs Orebro SK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Osters IF and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Osters IF and 0.95 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Osters IF have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 28W 15D 17L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Orebro SK's form line: 18W 17D 25L from 60 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Osters IF are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Orebro SK.
Venue Form
On home soil, Osters IF have posted 1.80 PPG from their last 30 home games (16W 6D 8L).
On the road, Orebro SK have gone 6W 7D 17L from their last 30 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osters IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Osters IF are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 1.27 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Osters IF have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Current Season
Orebro SK
Current Season
Osters IF (Home) vs Orebro SK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Osters IF
Current Season
Orebro SK
Current Season
❓ Osters IF vs Orebro SK Form FAQs
What form are Osters IF and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
Osters IF have gone 28W 15D 17L in their last 60 games (1.65 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 18W 17D 25L in their last 60 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osters IF at home or Orebro SK away?
Osters IF's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osters IF at home: 1.80 PPG; Orebro SK away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Osters IF or Orebro SK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osters IF have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Orebro SK in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from May 2022. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 7 Oct 2023, when Osters IF won Osters IF 3-0 Orebro SK.
Osters IF's record when hosting Orebro SK specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Osters IF
4
Draws
1
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Osters IF vs Orebro SK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Orebro SK?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Osters IF have won 3, Orebro SK have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and Orebro SK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: Orebro SK 1-1 Osters IF.
Who has won more matches between Osters IF and Orebro SK?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osters IF 57%, Orebro SK 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Osters IF and 67% for Orebro SK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Osters IF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Orebro SK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Osters IF vs Orebro SK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Osters IF and Orebro SK matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Osters IF's games and 53% of Orebro SK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Osters IF and Orebro SK matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Osters IF's matches and 67% of Orebro SK's.
Do Osters IF and Orebro SK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Osters IF's recent matches and 73% of Orebro SK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Osters IF cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Orebro SK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF beat Orebro SK 2-0 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 1.70 xG and Orebro SK 0.95 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Orebro SK landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 1.04 / defence 0.97 against Orebro SK attack 1.02 / defence 1.23, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 54% | Draw 26% | Orebro SK 20%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 62%, Orebro SK 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osters IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Orebro SK's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Osters IF arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Osters IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.