Landskrona BoIS 2-1 Oddevold – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs Oddevold fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Oddevold make the trip to Landskrona Idrottsplats to face Landskrona BoIS in Superettan, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 April 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Landskrona BoIS (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Landskrona BoIS at Landskrona Idrottsplats this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.83 xG and Oddevold 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.263 / defence 0.949 | Oddevold attack 0.991 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 0.974. Landskrona BoIS carry an above-average attack strength of 1.263 — their λ of 1.83 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 32 Landskrona BoIS games / 2 Oddevold games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 58% | Draw 24% | Oddevold 18%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Oddevold 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Landskrona BoIS (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Landskrona BoIS at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Oddevold | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 58% | Draw 24% | Oddevold 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 51% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.83 / Oddevold 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.263 / def 0.949 | Oddevold attack 0.991 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.332 / away 0.974 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Oddevold xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Oddevold kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Oddevold kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Oddevold?
Landskrona BoIS 2 - 1 Oddevold.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Oddevold being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Oddevold part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Oddevold is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Oddevold?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 58% chance of winning, Oddevold a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Oddevold?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Oddevold will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Oddevold have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Oddevold?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Oddevold in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Landskrona BoIS home split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Landskrona BoIS's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Oddevold's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. Flip it around — Oddevold's attack (0.99x) against Landskrona BoIS's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
The sample (32/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
58%
1.71
24%
4.22
18%
5.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.75
0.92
Oddevold xG
1.71
58%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
5.57
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
23%
4.28
3%
34.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 10.8 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Oddevold?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Oddevold expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 0.92 for Oddevold, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Oddevold?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Pre-Season
Oddevold
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Landskrona BoIS won 0-3 on 1 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Landskrona BoIS have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Oddevold — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Landskrona BoIS
2
Draws
0
Oddevold
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Oddevold?
From 5 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 3, Oddevold have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Oddevold last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Oddevold 1-1 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Oddevold?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Oddevold away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Landskrona BoIS edge out Oddevold 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Oddevold 2-1 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 3, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.83 xG and Oddevold 0.92 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.26 / defence 0.95 against Oddevold attack 0.99 / defence 1.09, drawn from 32/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 58% | Draw 24% | Oddevold 18%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.