Orgryte IS 1-2 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orgryte IS vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees IK brage travel to Gamla Ullevi to take on Orgryte IS. The game is scheduled for Monday 15 April 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Orgryte IS have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Orgryte IS at Gamla Ullevi this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Gamla Ullevi this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, IK brage stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
IK brage away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Orgryte IS) versus 1.70 (IK brage). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Orgryte IS, 2 for IK brage and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Jul 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Orgryte IS in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
IK brage in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 55% versus IK brage 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 53% | IK brage 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.25 xG and IK brage 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 0.954 / defence 1.222 | IK brage attack 0.955 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 0.918. Data: 32 Orgryte IS games / 32 IK brage games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 39% | Draw 30% | IK brage 31%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | IK brage 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Orgryte IS as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 60% | IK brage 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Monday 15 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 39% | Draw 30% | IK brage 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Orgryte IS 1.25 / IK brage 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 0.954 / def 1.222 | IK brage attack 0.955 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.331 / away 0.918 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.07
IK brage xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs IK brage kick off?
Orgryte IS vs IK brage kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 15 April 2024 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs IK brage?
Orgryte IS 1 - 2 IK brage.
Where is Orgryte IS vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs IK brage part of?
Orgryte IS vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 39% chance of winning, IK brage a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Orgryte IS and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and IK brage?
Record (6 meetings): Orgryte IS 2W | Draws 2 | IK brage 2W.
What form are Orgryte IS and IK brage in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. IK brage (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Orgryte IS's attack at 0.95x the league average against IK brage's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, IK brage's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
39%
2.54
30%
3.31
31%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.32
1.07
IK brage xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.28
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
13%
7.42
9%
11.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 10.5 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.1 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.07 for IK brage, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Orgryte IS's recent record stands at 19W 18D 23L from 60 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five.
IK brage, meanwhile, have gone 23W 14D 23L across 60 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orgryte IS on 1.25 PPG, IK brage on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Orgryte IS have managed 8W 11D 11L from 30 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IK brage's away record stands at 8W 8D 14L across 30 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.38 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Current Season
IK brage
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and IK brage in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 19W 18D 23L in their last 60 games (1.25 PPG), while IK brage have gone 23W 14D 23L in their last 60 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or IK brage away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.17 PPG; IK brage away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Orgryte IS and IK brage runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 23 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 May 2022, when IK brage won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orgryte IS's record when hosting IK brage specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Orgryte IS
3
Draws
4
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and IK brage?
From 10 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 3, IK brage have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2025, when Orgryte IS 2-2 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and IK brage?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 57%, IK brage 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Orgryte IS) and 53% (IK brage). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IK brage in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play IK brage?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Orgryte IS's games and 57% of IK brage's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orgryte IS vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Orgryte IS's matches and 53% of IK brage's.
Do Orgryte IS and IK brage tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, IK brage in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IK brage defy the odds to beat Orgryte IS 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage beat Orgryte IS 1-2 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 3, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.25 xG and IK brage 1.07 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. IK brage outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 0.95 / defence 1.22 against IK brage attack 0.95 / defence 0.98, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 39% | Draw 30% | IK brage 31%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual IK brage win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 53%, IK brage 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
IK brage's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.25 PPG, IK brage 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IK brage win broke the near-deadlock. IK brage (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.