Hammarby FF 3-3 IF Brommapojkarna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hammarby FF at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hammarby FF and IF Brommapojkarna meet at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan (matchday 18). This fixture gets under way on Monday 12 August 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
Hammarby FF's record over their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Hammarby FF have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
IF Brommapojkarna (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
IF Brommapojkarna away from home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form favours the hosts. Hammarby FF's 2.20 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of IF Brommapojkarna's 1.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Hammarby FF edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Jul 2024, ended Hammarby FF 2–0 IF Brommapojkarna — a Hammarby FF win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Hammarby FF — key trading statistics (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games).
IF Brommapojkarna — key trading statistics (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 51% versus IF Brommapojkarna 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 60% | IF Brommapojkarna 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.87 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.112 / defence 0.798 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.146 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.339. Hammarby FF have a tight defence (rating 0.798), which is pulling IF Brommapojkarna's projected output down. Data: built from Hammarby FF's last 47 games and IF Brommapojkarna's last 47.
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 52% | Draw 23% | IF Brommapojkarna 25%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 1.91 | Draw 4.42 | IF Brommapojkarna 4.00. Hammarby FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.87 / 1.23) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hammarby FF at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hammarby FF's last 10 home games and IF Brommapojkarna's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hammarby FF 60% (last 10 home games) | IF Brommapojkarna 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 18 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Monday 12 August 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 52% | Draw 23% | IF Brommapojkarna 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Hammarby FF 1.87 / IF Brommapojkarna 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.112 / def 0.798 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.146 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.646 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.23
IF Brommapojkarna xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna FAQs
What time does Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 12 August 2024 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Hammarby FF 3 - 3 IF Brommapojkarna.
Where is Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 18) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 52% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Hammarby FF and IF Brommapojkarna will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hammarby FF's attack rating (1.11) and IF Brommapojkarna's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.87 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — IF Brommapojkarna's attack (1.15x) against Hammarby FF's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from Hammarby FF's last 47 games and IF Brommapojkarna's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
52%
1.91
23%
4.42
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
3.09
1.23
IF Brommapojkarna xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
15%
6.46
Win to Nil
15%
6.50
4%
25.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.4 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.23 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hammarby FF's recent record stands at 21W 12D 14L from 47 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-W in the last five.
IF Brommapojkarna, meanwhile, have gone 17W 10D 20L across 47 games — 1.30 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for Hammarby FF against 1.30 for IF Brommapojkarna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Hammarby FF have managed 14W 5D 4L from their last 23 home games — 2.04 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.60 PPG overall — Hammarby FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
IF Brommapojkarna's away record stands at 10W 4D 9L across their last 23 away games, a 1.48 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; IF Brommapojkarna are on 1.55 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Blended
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
Hammarby FF (Home) vs IF Brommapojkarna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hammarby FF
Blended
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
❓ Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna Form FAQs
What form are Hammarby FF and IF Brommapojkarna in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 21W 12D 14L in their last 47 games (1.60 PPG), while IF Brommapojkarna have gone 17W 10D 20L in their last 47 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or IF Brommapojkarna away?
Hammarby FF's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 2.04 PPG; IF Brommapojkarna away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or IF Brommapojkarna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, IF Brommapojkarna in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to June 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hammarby FF have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against IF Brommapojkarna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Hammarby FF
2
Draws
1
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and IF Brommapojkarna?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Hammarby FF have won 5, IF Brommapojkarna have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: Hammarby FF 3-1 IF Brommapojkarna.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and IF Brommapojkarna?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 65%, IF Brommapojkarna 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Hammarby FF and 56% for IF Brommapojkarna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Brommapojkarna in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hammarby FF and IF Brommapojkarna matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Hammarby FF's games and 56% of IF Brommapojkarna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hammarby FF and IF Brommapojkarna matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Hammarby FF's matches and 56% of IF Brommapojkarna's.
Do Hammarby FF and IF Brommapojkarna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Hammarby FF's recent matches and 78% of IF Brommapojkarna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hammarby FF and IF Brommapojkarna share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF and IF Brommapojkarna finished level at 3-3 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.87 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.23 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Hammarby FF beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IF Brommapojkarna outscored their 1.23 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.11 / defence 0.80 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.15 / defence 1.02, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 52% | Draw 23% | IF Brommapojkarna 25%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 60%, IF Brommapojkarna 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.60 PPG, IF Brommapojkarna 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.