IFK Norrkoping 2-1 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Norrkoping at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as IFK Norrkoping face Vasteras SK FK.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Vasteras SK FK travel to PlatinumCars Arena to take on IFK Norrkoping in Allsvenskan (matchday 18). The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 August 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, IFK Norrkoping stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
IFK Norrkoping's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — IFK Norrkoping are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Vasteras SK FK have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Vasteras SK FK have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: IFK Norrkoping 1.00 PPG, Vasteras SK FK 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, IFK Norrkoping have won 0, Vasteras SK FK 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 14 Jul 2024, ended IFK Norrkoping 1–2 Vasteras SK FK — a Vasteras SK FK win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
IFK Norrkoping trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Vasteras SK FK trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Norrkoping 62% versus Vasteras SK FK 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Norrkoping 64% | Vasteras SK FK 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Norrkoping 1.47 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Norrkoping attack 0.875 / defence 1.096 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.682 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.675 / away 1.385. Vasteras SK FK's attack rating of 0.682 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Data: built from IFK Norrkoping's last 47 games and Vasteras SK FK's last 17.
Result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 47% | Draw 26% | Vasteras SK FK 27%. Fair-value odds: IFK Norrkoping 2.12 | Draw 3.82 | Vasteras SK FK 3.77. IFK Norrkoping hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IFK Norrkoping are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Norrkoping offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: IFK Norrkoping 50% (last 10 home games) | Vasteras SK FK 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Norrkoping vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 18 | Venue: PlatinumCars Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 August 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 47% | Draw 26% | Vasteras SK FK 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG IFK Norrkoping 1.47 / Vasteras SK FK 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Norrkoping attack 0.875 / def 1.096 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.682 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.675 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: IFK Norrkoping (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
IFK Norrkoping xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Vasteras SK FK xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ IFK Norrkoping vs Vasteras SK FK FAQs
What time does IFK Norrkoping vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
IFK Norrkoping vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 10 August 2024 at PlatinumCars Arena.
What was the final score in IFK Norrkoping vs Vasteras SK FK?
IFK Norrkoping 2 - 1 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is IFK Norrkoping vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at PlatinumCars Arena.
What competition is IFK Norrkoping vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
IFK Norrkoping vs Vasteras SK FK is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 18) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Norrkoping vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives IFK Norrkoping a 47% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making IFK Norrkoping the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Norrkoping vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both IFK Norrkoping and Vasteras SK FK will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will IFK Norrkoping vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates IFK Norrkoping's attack at 0.88x the league average against Vasteras SK FK's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vasteras SK FK's attack versus IFK Norrkoping's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from IFK Norrkoping's last 47 games and Vasteras SK FK's last 17 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Norrkoping Win
47%
2.12
26%
3.82
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
IFK Norrkoping xG
Total xG
2.51
1.03
Vasteras SK FK xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
17%
5.95
6%
16.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.4 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ IFK Norrkoping vs Vasteras SK FK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Norrkoping vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are IFK Norrkoping and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for IFK Norrkoping and 1.03 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Norrkoping vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, IFK Norrkoping have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 18W 7D 22L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Vasteras SK FK's form line: 22W 9D 16L from 47 games, 1.60 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: IFK Norrkoping on 1.30 PPG, Vasteras SK FK on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, IFK Norrkoping have posted 1.52 PPG from their last 23 home games (11W 2D 10L).
On the road, Vasteras SK FK have gone 10W 4D 9L from their last 23 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
IFK Norrkoping are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.30 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Norrkoping have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Vasteras SK FK in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Norrkoping
Blended
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
IFK Norrkoping (Home) vs Vasteras SK FK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
IFK Norrkoping
Blended
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
❓ IFK Norrkoping vs Vasteras SK FK Form FAQs
What form are IFK Norrkoping and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
IFK Norrkoping have gone 18W 7D 22L in their last 47 games (1.30 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 22W 9D 16L in their last 47 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Norrkoping at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
IFK Norrkoping's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Norrkoping at home: 1.52 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 1.48 PPG.
Have IFK Norrkoping or Vasteras SK FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Norrkoping have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Vasteras SK FK in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from July 2024. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent in our data was on 10 August 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
IFK Norrkoping
0
Draws
1
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ IFK Norrkoping vs Vasteras SK FK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and Vasteras SK FK?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, IFK Norrkoping have won 1, Vasteras SK FK have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IFK Norrkoping and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 August 2024: IFK Norrkoping 2-1 Vasteras SK FK.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Norrkoping 48%, Vasteras SK FK 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (IFK Norrkoping) and 52% (Vasteras SK FK).
On the defensive side: IFK Norrkoping keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Vasteras SK FK in 30%; Vasteras SK FK in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Norrkoping home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ IFK Norrkoping vs Vasteras SK FK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in IFK Norrkoping and Vasteras SK FK matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of IFK Norrkoping's recent matches and 44% of Vasteras SK FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are IFK Norrkoping and Vasteras SK FK matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of IFK Norrkoping's recent games and 52% of Vasteras SK FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Norrkoping and Vasteras SK FK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of IFK Norrkoping's recent matches and 61% of Vasteras SK FK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IFK Norrkoping edge out Vasteras SK FK 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Norrkoping beat Vasteras SK FK 2-1 at PlatinumCars Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Norrkoping 1.47 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.03 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Norrkoping attack 0.88 / defence 1.10 against Vasteras SK FK attack 0.68 / defence 1.00, drawn from 47/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Norrkoping 47% | Draw 26% | Vasteras SK FK 27%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Norrkoping 64%, Vasteras SK FK 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Norrkoping 1.30 PPG, Vasteras SK FK 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Norrkoping win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.