IF Brommapojkarna 1-3 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates IF Brommapojkarna at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Brommapojkarna vs BK Hacken fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Grimsta IP plays host to IF Brommapojkarna versus BK Hacken in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Sunday 18 August 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
IF Brommapojkarna (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IF Brommapojkarna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, IF Brommapojkarna have posted 3W 4D 3L at Grimsta IP — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
BK Hacken have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BK Hacken's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for IF Brommapojkarna, 1.40 for BK Hacken — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — IF Brommapojkarna have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, BK Hacken in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: IF Brommapojkarna 1W, BK Hacken 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2024, ended 3–4 with BK Hacken winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
IF Brommapojkarna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BK Hacken goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IF Brommapojkarna 57% and BK Hacken 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (IF Brommapojkarna 62% | BK Hacken 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Brommapojkarna 1.76 xG and BK Hacken 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.967 / defence 1.209 | BK Hacken attack 1.020 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.647 / away 1.361. Data: 48 IF Brommapojkarna games / 47 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 40% | Draw 22% | BK Hacken 37%. Fair-value odds: IF Brommapojkarna 2.50 | Draw 4.55 | BK Hacken 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IF Brommapojkarna are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IF Brommapojkarna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.44 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IF Brommapojkarna 60% | BK Hacken 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Brommapojkarna vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Aug 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 40% | Draw 22% | BK Hacken 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG IF Brommapojkarna 1.76 / BK Hacken 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.967 / def 1.209 | BK Hacken attack 1.020 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.647 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: IF Brommapojkarna (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Expected Goals
1.68
BK Hacken xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Brommapojkarna vs BK Hacken kick off?
IF Brommapojkarna vs BK Hacken kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 18 August 2024 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in IF Brommapojkarna vs BK Hacken?
IF Brommapojkarna 1 - 3 BK Hacken.
Where is IF Brommapojkarna vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is IF Brommapojkarna vs BK Hacken part of?
IF Brommapojkarna vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Brommapojkarna vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives IF Brommapojkarna a 40% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 37% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making IF Brommapojkarna the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Brommapojkarna vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both IF Brommapojkarna and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will IF Brommapojkarna vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and BK Hacken?
Record (3 meetings): IF Brommapojkarna 1W | Draws 0 | BK Hacken 2W.
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and BK Hacken in?
IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. BK Hacken (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates IF Brommapojkarna's attack at 0.97x the league average against BK Hacken's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — BK Hacken's attack (1.02x) against IF Brommapojkarna's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.68.
These ratings are built from 48/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Brommapojkarna Win
40%
2.48
22%
4.45
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Total xG
3.44
1.68
BK Hacken xG
2.48
40%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.06
Clean Sheet
19%
5.36
17%
5.80
Win to Nil
8%
13.27
6%
15.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.5 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Brommapojkarna vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are IF Brommapojkarna and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for IF Brommapojkarna and 1.68 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Brommapojkarna vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
IF Brommapojkarna's recent record stands at 17W 11D 19L from 47 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for IF Brommapojkarna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BK Hacken, meanwhile, have gone 26W 6D 15L across 47 games — 1.79 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours BK Hacken by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over IF Brommapojkarna heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, IF Brommapojkarna have managed 7W 6D 10L from 23 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
BK Hacken's away record stands at 7W 5D 11L across 23 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.79 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of BK Hacken's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IF Brommapojkarna are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 2.21 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken in 66%.
Last 47 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
BK Hacken
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
IF Brommapojkarna have gone 17W 11D 19L in their last 47 games (1.32 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 26W 6D 15L in their last 47 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Brommapojkarna at home or BK Hacken away?
IF Brommapojkarna's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Brommapojkarna at home: 1.17 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Brommapojkarna have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against BK Hacken — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
IF Brommapojkarna
1
Draws
5
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and BK Hacken?
From 7 meetings on record, IF Brommapojkarna have won 1, BK Hacken have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IF Brommapojkarna and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when BK Hacken 2-2 IF Brommapojkarna.
Who has won more matches between IF Brommapojkarna and BK Hacken?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Brommapojkarna 56%, BK Hacken 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for IF Brommapojkarna and 65% for BK Hacken. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Brommapojkarna have failed to score in 35% of games; BK Hacken in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Brommapojkarna home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Brommapojkarna play BK Hacken?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of IF Brommapojkarna's recent matches and 52% of BK Hacken's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IF Brommapojkarna vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of IF Brommapojkarna's matches and 65% of BK Hacken's.
Do IF Brommapojkarna and BK Hacken tend to score early?
IF Brommapojkarna have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
BK Hacken cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over IF Brommapojkarna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BK Hacken beat IF Brommapojkarna 1-3 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 19, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 1.76 xG and BK Hacken 1.68 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. BK Hacken outscored their 1.68 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.97 / defence 1.21 against BK Hacken attack 1.02 / defence 1.10, drawn from 48/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 40% | Draw 22% | BK Hacken 37%, with IF Brommapojkarna to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual BK Hacken win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Brommapojkarna 62%, BK Hacken 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
BK Hacken's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, BK Hacken arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.32. That form edge translated into the three points. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. BK Hacken (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.