Almeria 0-3 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Osasuna (36%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Almeria face Osasuna.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Power Horse Stadium plays host to Almeria versus Osasuna in La Liga (matchday 30). Kick-off: Saturday 30 March 2024 at 15:15 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Almeria have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D D L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Almeria have gone 0W 7D 3L in their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Osasuna's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Osasuna have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Osasuna are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Osasuna have the stronger record — 3 wins to Almeria's 0, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Jan 2024, ended Almeria 0–1 Osasuna — a Osasuna win.
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading
Almeria half-time and goal-timing data (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Osasuna half-time and goal-timing data (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almeria 64% versus Osasuna 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almeria 61% | Osasuna 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almeria 1.16 xG and Osasuna 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almeria attack 0.829 / defence 1.244 | Osasuna attack 0.886 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.094. Almeria's defence rating of 1.244 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Osasuna's projected output up. Data: built from Almeria's last 67 games and Osasuna's last 67.
Result probabilities: Almeria 34% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 36%. Fair-value odds: Almeria 2.92 | Draw 3.41 | Osasuna 2.74. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Osasuna as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osasuna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Almeria 50% (last 10 home games) | Osasuna 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almeria vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, matchday 30 | Venue: Power Horse Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 March 2024 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almeria 34% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Almeria 1.16 / Osasuna 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Almeria attack 0.829 / def 1.244 | Osasuna attack 0.886 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Almeria xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Osasuna xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Almeria vs Osasuna FAQs
What time does Almeria vs Osasuna kick off?
Almeria vs Osasuna kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Power Horse Stadium.
What was the final score in Almeria vs Osasuna?
Almeria 0 - 3 Osasuna.
Where is Almeria vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Power Horse Stadium.
What competition is Almeria vs Osasuna part of?
Almeria vs Osasuna is a La Liga fixture (matchday 30) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Almeria vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Almeria a 34% chance of winning, Osasuna a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almeria vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Almeria and Osasuna will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Almeria vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Almeria's attack at 0.83x the league average against Osasuna's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Osasuna's attack (0.89x) against Almeria's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from Almeria's last 67 games and Osasuna's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
34%
2.92
29%
3.41
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Almeria xG
Total xG
2.37
1.21
Osasuna xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
10%
9.76
11%
8.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 11.3 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Almeria vs Osasuna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Almeria vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Almeria and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Almeria and 1.21 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Almeria vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Almeria come into this having played 67 games, going 12W 18D 37L for 0.81 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-W.
On the other side, Osasuna sit at 1.33 PPG from 67 outings (25W 14D 28L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five.
Osasuna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Almeria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Almeria's home form reads 10W 11D 12L across their last 33 home games, a 1.24 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.81 PPG overall — Almeria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Osasuna have taken 1.03 points per game from their last 33 away games (8W 10D 15L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Almeria are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.04 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almeria
Current Season
Osasuna
Current Season
Almeria (Home) vs Osasuna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Almeria
Current Season
Osasuna
Current Season
❓ Almeria vs Osasuna Form FAQs
What form are Almeria and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Almeria have gone 12W 18D 37L in their last 67 games (0.81 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 25W 14D 28L in their last 67 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almeria at home or Osasuna away?
Almeria's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almeria at home: 1.24 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 30 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Osasuna have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Osasuna won Almeria 0-3 Osasuna on 30 Mar 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almeria have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Osasuna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Almeria
0
Draws
4
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Almeria vs Osasuna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Osasuna?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Almeria have won 0, Osasuna have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Almeria and Osasuna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 March 2024: Almeria 0-3 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Almeria and Osasuna?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almeria 61%, Osasuna 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Almeria) and 33% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Almeria have failed to score in 30% of games; Osasuna in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almeria home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Almeria vs Osasuna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Almeria and Osasuna matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Almeria's recent matches and 48% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Almeria and Osasuna matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Almeria's recent games and 33% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Almeria and Osasuna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Almeria's recent matches and 70% of Osasuna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Osasuna run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Almeria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Almeria 0-3 at Power Horse Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almeria 1.16 xG and Osasuna 1.21 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Almeria fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Osasuna outscored their 1.21 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almeria attack 0.83 / defence 1.24 against Osasuna attack 0.89 / defence 1.00, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almeria 34% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 36%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almeria 61%, Osasuna 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almeria's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Osasuna's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Osasuna arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.81. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Almeria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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