Alaves 0-1 Real Sociedad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Real Sociedad at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alaves vs Real Sociedad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Real Sociedad make the trip to Estadio de Mendizorroza to face Alaves in La Liga, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Sunday 31 March 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Alaves (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Alaves have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Real Sociedad have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Real Sociedad away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Alaves against 1.40 for Real Sociedad. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Alaves lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Jan 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Alaves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Real Sociedad goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 41% versus Real Sociedad 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alaves 28% | Real Sociedad 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 0.97 xG and Real Sociedad 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.763 / defence 1.045 | Real Sociedad attack 1.204 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.098. Alaves's attack strength of 0.763 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Real Sociedad have an above-average attack strength of 1.204 — the away xG of 1.38 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 29 Alaves games / 67 Real Sociedad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alaves 25% | Draw 29% | Real Sociedad 46%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 4.00 | Draw 3.45 | Real Sociedad 2.17. Real Sociedad hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Real Sociedad are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Real Sociedad if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Alaves 50% | Real Sociedad 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Real Sociedad | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Mar 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 25% | Draw 29% | Real Sociedad 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Alaves 0.97 / Real Sociedad 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.763 / def 1.045 | Real Sociedad attack 1.204 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Real Sociedad (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Real Sociedad xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Real Sociedad kick off?
Alaves vs Real Sociedad kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 31 March 2024 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Real Sociedad?
Alaves 0 - 1 Real Sociedad.
Where is Alaves vs Real Sociedad being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Real Sociedad part of?
Alaves vs Real Sociedad is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Real Sociedad?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 25% chance of winning, Real Sociedad a 46% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Real Sociedad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Real Sociedad?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Alaves and Real Sociedad will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Real Sociedad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Real Sociedad?
Record (3 meetings): Alaves 0W | Draws 2 | Real Sociedad 1W.
What form are Alaves and Real Sociedad in?
Alaves (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Real Sociedad (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Alaves's attack rating (0.76) and Real Sociedad's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Real Sociedad's attack (1.20x) against Alaves's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 29/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.5%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Sociedad Win
25%
3.93
29%
3.44
46%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Alaves xG
Total xG
2.35
1.38
Real Sociedad xG
3.93
25%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.20
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
6%
15.64
17%
5.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 13.2 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Real Sociedad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Alaves and Real Sociedad expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Alaves and 1.38 for Real Sociedad, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Real Sociedad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Alaves come into this having played 29 games, going 8W 8D 13L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, Real Sociedad sit at 1.59 PPG from 29 outings (12W 10D 7L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five.
Real Sociedad carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Alaves — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Alaves's home form reads 6W 3D 5L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Real Sociedad have taken 1.57 points per game from 14 outings (6W 4D 4L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Alaves are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Real Sociedad are on 1.45 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Real Sociedad in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Current Season
Real Sociedad
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Real Sociedad in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 8W 8D 13L in their last 29 games (1.10 PPG), while Real Sociedad have gone 12W 10D 7L in their last 29 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Real Sociedad away?
Real Sociedad's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.50 PPG; Real Sociedad away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Alaves or Real Sociedad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alaves have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Real Sociedad in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alaves have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Real Sociedad — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Alaves
3
Draws
2
Real Sociedad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Real Sociedad?
From 8 meetings on record, Alaves have won 3, Real Sociedad have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Real Sociedad last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Real Sociedad 3-3 Alaves.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Real Sociedad?
Alaves have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Real Sociedad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 43%, Real Sociedad 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 21% (Alaves) and 64% (Real Sociedad).
On the defensive side: Real Sociedad in 36%; Alaves have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Real Sociedad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Real Sociedad?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Alaves's recent matches and 64% of Real Sociedad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alaves vs Real Sociedad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of Alaves's recent games and 64% of Real Sociedad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Real Sociedad tend to score early?
Alaves have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Real Sociedad in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Real Sociedad edge out Alaves 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Sociedad beat Alaves 0-1 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 30, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 0.97 xG and Real Sociedad 1.38 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Alaves fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.76 / defence 1.04 against Real Sociedad attack 1.20 / defence 0.92, drawn from 29/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 25% | Draw 29% | Real Sociedad 46%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 28%, Real Sociedad 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Real Sociedad's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Sociedad arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.10. That form edge translated into the three points. Alaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.