Valencia 0-0 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valencia at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valencia vs Mallorca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio de Mestalla plays host to Valencia versus Mallorca in La Liga, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Saturday 30 March 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Valencia have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Valencia's home record at Estadio de Mestalla: 6W 4D 0L from 10 La Liga appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio de Mestalla. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Valencia are significantly better at Estadio de Mestalla than their overall form suggests.
Mallorca's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Mallorca have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Valencia's 1.70 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Mallorca's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Valencia 1W, Mallorca 2W, 2D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Valencia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Mallorca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valencia 47% versus Mallorca 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Valencia 44% | Mallorca 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 1.31 xG and Mallorca 0.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 0.938 / defence 0.727 | Mallorca attack 0.716 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.108. Valencia's defence rating of 0.727 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 66 Valencia games / 67 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valencia 54% | Draw 30% | Mallorca 16%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 1.85 | Draw 3.33 | Mallorca 6.25. Valencia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Mallorca's lower xG of 0.58 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Valencia as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valencia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.89 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: Valencia 40% | Mallorca 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Mar 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 54% | Draw 30% | Mallorca 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 33% | xG Valencia 1.31 / Mallorca 0.58 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 0.938 / def 0.727 | Mallorca attack 0.716 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Valencia (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
0.58
Mallorca xG
33%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valencia vs Mallorca kick off?
Valencia vs Mallorca kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Estadio de Mestalla.
What was the final score in Valencia vs Mallorca?
Valencia 0 - 0 Mallorca.
Where is Valencia vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Mallorca part of?
Valencia vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 54% chance of winning, Mallorca a 16% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Valencia and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Valencia vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Mallorca?
Record (5 meetings): Valencia 1W | Draws 2 | Mallorca 2W.
What form are Valencia and Mallorca in?
Valencia (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Mallorca (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Valencia's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Mallorca's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. Flip it around — Mallorca's attack (0.72x) against Valencia's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.58.
These ratings are built from 66/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 18.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.6%), 2-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
54%
1.85
30%
3.32
16%
6.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.1%
Draw
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Valencia xG
Total xG
1.89
0.58
Mallorca xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
6.36
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.06
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
56%
1.78
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
30%
3.29
4%
23.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1 | 8.7 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.8 | 11.4 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Valencia and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Valencia and 0.58 for Mallorca, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 66 outings, Valencia have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 22W 16D 28L record — L-D-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Mallorca's form line: 20W 19D 27L from 66 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Valencia against 1.20 for Mallorca. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Valencia have posted 1.69 PPG from 32 outings (15W 9D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.24 PPG overall — Valencia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Mallorca have gone 5W 7D 20L from 32 away games — 0.69 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mallorca's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valencia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valencia are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.94 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 66 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Current Season
Mallorca
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valencia and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Valencia have gone 22W 16D 28L in their last 66 games (1.24 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 20W 19D 27L in their last 66 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valencia at home or Mallorca away?
Valencia's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valencia at home: 1.69 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.69 PPG.
Have Valencia or Mallorca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valencia have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Mallorca in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valencia have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mallorca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Valencia
5
Draws
3
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Mallorca?
From 10 meetings on record, Valencia have won 2, Mallorca have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Valencia and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when Mallorca 1-1 Valencia.
Who has won more matches between Valencia and Mallorca?
Mallorca have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valencia see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valencia 44%, Mallorca 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Valencia) and 38% (Mallorca).
On the defensive side: Valencia keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Mallorca in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valencia play Mallorca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Valencia's recent matches and 41% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valencia vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Valencia's recent games and 38% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valencia and Mallorca tend to score early?
Valencia have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Valencia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valencia and Mallorca finished level at 0-0 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 30, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.31 xG and Mallorca 0.58 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Valencia fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 0.94 / defence 0.73 against Mallorca attack 0.72 / defence 1.00, drawn from 66/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valencia 54% | Draw 30% | Mallorca 16%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 44%, Mallorca 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valencia's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mallorca's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valencia 1.24 PPG, Mallorca 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Valencia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.