Daegu FC 1-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Daegu FC take on Ulsan Hyundai FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ulsan Hyundai FC make the trip to DGB Daegu Bank Park to face Daegu FC in K League 1 (matchday 10). The match kicks off on Wednesday 1 May 2024 at 12:00 UK time.
Current Form
Daegu FC's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Daegu FC at home: 3W 6D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Ulsan Hyundai FC away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Ulsan Hyundai FC edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Oct 2023, ended Daegu FC 0–2 Ulsan Hyundai FC — a Ulsan Hyundai FC win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Daegu FC — key trading statistics (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Ulsan Hyundai FC — key trading statistics (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 61%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 57% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 46% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.03 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.630 / defence 0.780 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.109 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.116. Daegu FC's attack rating of 0.630 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Daegu FC have a tight defence (rating 0.780), which is pulling Ulsan Hyundai FC's projected output down. Data: built from Daegu FC's last 42 games and Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 41.
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 33% | Draw 37% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 30%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 3.01 | Draw 2.70 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.36. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.00 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Daegu FC's last 10 home games and Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Daegu FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Ulsan Hyundai FC 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 10 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 May 2024 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 33% | Draw 37% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Daegu FC 1.03 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 0.630 / def 0.780 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.109 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.462 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC FAQs
What time does Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Wednesday 1 May 2024 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Daegu FC 1 - 2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 10) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 33% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 30% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Daegu FC's attack at 0.63x the league average against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack (1.11x) against Daegu FC's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from Daegu FC's last 42 games and Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.01
37%
2.70
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.00
0.96
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
3.01
33%
Home win
2.70
37%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
13%
7.91
11%
9.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 13.1 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Daegu FC and 0.96 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Daegu FC's recent record stands at 23W 30D 23L from 76 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC, meanwhile, have gone 45W 17D 14L across 76 games — 2.00 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ulsan Hyundai FC by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Daegu FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Daegu FC have managed 15W 15D 8L from their last 38 home games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record stands at 20W 9D 9L across their last 38 away games, a 1.82 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Daegu FC are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.58 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Daegu FC (Home) vs Ulsan Hyundai FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Daegu FC
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC Form FAQs
What form are Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 23W 30D 23L in their last 76 games (1.30 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 45W 17D 14L in their last 76 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.58 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.82 PPG.
Have Daegu FC or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Daegu FC have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to June 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was on 26 October 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daegu FC have gone 0W 2D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Ulsan Hyundai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Daegu FC
4
Draws
6
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Daegu FC have won 0, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 October 2025: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 50%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Daegu FC) and 47% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 53% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Daegu FC's recent games and 47% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 63% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ulsan Hyundai FC defy the odds to beat Daegu FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Daegu FC 1-2 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 10, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.03 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.96 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.63 / defence 0.78 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.11 / defence 1.12, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 33% | Draw 37% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Ulsan Hyundai FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 46%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.30. Form held, and they took the win. Daegu FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.