Damac 0-1 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Damac at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Damac face Al Khaleej Saihat.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Khaleej Saihat make the trip to Dhamak Club Stadium to face Damac in Pro League (matchday 25). The match kicks off on Friday 29 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Damac (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Damac's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Al Khaleej Saihat's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Al Khaleej Saihat's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Damac against 1.50 for Al Khaleej Saihat. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Damac, 1 for Al Khaleej Saihat and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2023, ended Damac 2–0 Al Khaleej Saihat — a Damac win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Damac goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Al Khaleej Saihat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 56% versus Al Khaleej Saihat 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 50% | Al Khaleej Saihat 46%). Note also that Al Khaleej Saihat surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Damac recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 42% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.43 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 1.023 / defence 0.904 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.817 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.479. Data: built from Damac's last 54 games and Al Khaleej Saihat's last 54.
Result probabilities: Damac 44% | Draw 29% | Al Khaleej Saihat 28%. Fair-value odds: Damac 2.29 | Draw 3.48 | Al Khaleej Saihat 3.62. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Damac as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Damac if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Damac 50% (last 10 home games) | Al Khaleej Saihat 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, matchday 25 | Venue: Dhamak Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 44% | Draw 29% | Al Khaleej Saihat 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Damac 1.43 / Al Khaleej Saihat 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 1.023 / def 0.904 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.817 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.479 • Poisson stance: Damac (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Damac vs Al Khaleej Saihat FAQs
What time does Damac vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Damac vs Al Khaleej Saihat kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 29 March 2024 at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Damac 0 - 1 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Where is Damac vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Damac vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Pro League fixture (matchday 25) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 44% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Damac and Al Khaleej Saihat will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Damac vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Damac's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Al Khaleej Saihat's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — Al Khaleej Saihat's attack (0.82x) against Damac's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from Damac's last 54 games and Al Khaleej Saihat's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
44%
2.29
29%
3.48
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Damac xG
Total xG
2.52
1.09
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
15%
6.83
7%
15.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.5 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Damac vs Al Khaleej Saihat Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Damac and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Damac and 1.09 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Damac come into this having played 54 games, going 18W 16D 20L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, Al Khaleej Saihat sit at 1.09 PPG from 54 outings (16W 11D 27L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Damac against 1.09 for Al Khaleej Saihat. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Damac's home form reads 11W 9D 7L across their last 27 home games, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Khaleej Saihat have taken 0.93 points per game from their last 27 away games (7W 4D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Damac come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Damac are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 1.07 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
Damac (Home) vs Al Khaleej Saihat (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Damac
Blended
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
❓ Damac vs Al Khaleej Saihat Form FAQs
What form are Damac and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 18W 16D 20L in their last 54 games (1.30 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 16W 11D 27L in their last 54 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Damac's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.56 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Damac and Al Khaleej Saihat, the earliest from September 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 2 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Al Khaleej Saihat have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Khaleej Saihat won Al Khaleej Saihat 4-0 Damac on 9 Jan 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Damac have gone 1W 0D 3L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Damac
1
Draws
5
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Damac vs Al Khaleej Saihat H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Damac have won 2, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Damac and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 May 2026: Damac 0-2 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al Khaleej Saihat have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 56%, Al Khaleej Saihat 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Damac) and 37% (Al Khaleej Saihat).
On the defensive side: Al Khaleej Saihat in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Damac vs Al Khaleej Saihat Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Damac and Al Khaleej Saihat matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Damac's recent matches and 37% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Damac and Al Khaleej Saihat matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Damac's recent games and 37% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al Khaleej Saihat matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Damac's recent matches and 70% of Al Khaleej Saihat's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Khaleej Saihat defy the odds to beat Damac 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Khaleej Saihat beat Damac 0-1 at Dhamak Club Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.43 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.09 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Damac fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 1.02 / defence 0.90 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.82 / defence 1.00, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 44% | Draw 29% | Al Khaleej Saihat 28%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Al Khaleej Saihat win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 50%, Al Khaleej Saihat 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Damac 1.30 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Khaleej Saihat win broke the near-deadlock. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.