Al-Hazm 0-0 Damac – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Damac (62%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al-Hazm face Damac.

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Analysis & Preview

Damac travel to Ar-Rass Stadium to take on Al-Hazm in Pro League (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Monday 1 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Hazm stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Al-Hazm's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Damac have recorded 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

When travelling, Damac have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form points away from home here. Damac's 1.30 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Al-Hazm's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Hazm's games and 60% of Damac's (from Al-Hazm's last 10 home games and Damac's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

Damac have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 3 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Al-Hazm. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2023, ended Al-Hazm 1–4 Damac — a Damac win.

Damac have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

In-Play Profile

Al-Hazm in-play tendencies (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

Damac in-play tendencies (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hazm 64% and Damac 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 60% | Damac 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 0.98 xG and Damac 2.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.722 / defence 1.568 | Damac attack 0.880 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.505. Al-Hazm's attack rating of 0.722 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.98. Al-Hazm's defence rating of 1.568 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Damac's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Hazm's last 25 games and Damac's last 55.

Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 16% | Draw 22% | Damac 62%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 6.22 | Draw 4.57 | Damac 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Damac (62%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Damac at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Hazm's last 10 home games and Damac's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Hazm 60% (last 10 home games) | Damac 60% (last 10 away games).

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