Al-Nassr 5-1 Al Taee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Nassr face Al Taee.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Al Taee travel to Al Awal Park at King Saud University to take on Al-Nassr. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 March 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Nassr stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al Awal Park at King Saud University, Al-Nassr have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Taee have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Taee have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Al-Nassr are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.40 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
Al-Nassr hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 1 for Al Taee, with 0 draws in between.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2023, ended 2–1 with Al-Nassr winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Nassr and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Al-Nassr in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Al Taee in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 52% versus Al Taee 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 70% | Al Taee 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 2.26 xG and Al Taee 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.380 / defence 1.204 | Al Taee attack 0.655 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.476. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack strength of 1.380 — their λ of 2.26 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 54 Al-Nassr games / 54 Al Taee games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 61% | Draw 20% | Al Taee 18%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.64 | Draw 5.00 | Al Taee 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.26 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.42 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Nassr 80% | Al Taee 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al Taee | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Al Awal Park at King Saud University • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 61% | Draw 20% | Al Taee 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 62% | xG Al-Nassr 2.26 / Al Taee 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.380 / def 1.204 | Al Taee attack 0.655 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.476 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.26
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Al Taee xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al Taee kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al Taee kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al Taee?
Al-Nassr 5 - 1 Al Taee.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al Taee being played?
The match is being played at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al Taee part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al Taee is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al Taee?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 61% chance of winning, Al Taee a 18% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al Taee?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al Taee will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al Taee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al Taee?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Nassr 4W | Draws 0 | Al Taee 1W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al Taee in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Al Taee (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Nassr's attack rating (1.38) and Al Taee's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 2.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taee's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
61%
1.63
20%
4.89
18%
5.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.26
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
3.42
1.16
Al Taee xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.89
20%
Draw
5.54
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
10%
9.55
Win to Nil
19%
5.21
2%
52.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al Taee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al Taee expected to score?
The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.16 for Al Taee, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al Taee?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Nassr come into this having played 54 games, going 38W 9D 7L for 2.28 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Taee sit at 1.04 PPG from 54 outings (16W 8D 30L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Al Taee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.24 PPG clear of Al Taee — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Nassr's home form reads 20W 5D 2L across 27 games on their own ground, a 2.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Taee have taken 0.63 points per game from 27 outings (4W 5D 18L). That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Taee's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.39 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Al Taee are on 1.20 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al Taee
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al Taee in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 38W 9D 7L in their last 54 games (2.28 PPG), while Al Taee have gone 16W 8D 30L in their last 54 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al Taee away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.41 PPG; Al Taee away: 0.63 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al Taee been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Al Taee in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Al-Nassr have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Mar 2024, when Al-Nassr won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Nassr's record when hosting Al Taee specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Al-Nassr
0
Draws
1
Al Taee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al Taee?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 5, Al Taee have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al Taee last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2024, when Al-Nassr 5-1 Al Taee.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al Taee?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Al Taee see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 59%, Al Taee 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Al-Nassr and 52% for Al Taee. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Al Taee in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al Taee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al Taee?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Al-Nassr's recent matches and 48% of Al Taee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al Taee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Al-Nassr's matches and 52% of Al Taee's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al Taee tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Al Taee in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Nassr run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Al Taee.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al Taee 5-1 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 2.26 xG and Al Taee 1.16 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Al-Nassr beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.38 / defence 1.20 against Al Taee attack 0.66 / defence 1.15, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 61% | Draw 20% | Al Taee 18%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 70%, Al Taee 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Taee's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 1.04. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.41 average — above their attacking norm. Al Taee (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.