Al-Fayha 1-2 Al Wehda Club – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Fayha at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al Wehda Club encounter.

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Match Analysis

Al-Fayha host Al Wehda Club at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 2 April 2024 at 20:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Al-Fayha — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Al-Fayha have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium this season.

Across all Pro League games this season, Al Wehda Club have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Wehda Club's away record: 1W 0D 9L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

On current form, Al-Fayha have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Al-Fayha have won 2, Al Wehda Club 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Al-Fayha in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Al Wehda Club in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 54% versus Al Wehda Club 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 53% | Al Wehda Club 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.25 xG and Al Wehda Club 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.824 / defence 1.097 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.627 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.465. Data: 55 Al-Fayha games / 55 Al Wehda Club games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 41% | Draw 30% | Al Wehda Club 29%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Al Wehda Club 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 40% | Al Wehda Club 50% BTTS from recent games.

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