Krylia Sovetov 3-1 Ural – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Krylia Sovetov at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Krylia Sovetov vs Ural encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Krylia Sovetov host Ural at Solidarnost Arena in Premier League (matchday 15). Kick-off is Saturday 11 November 2023 at 11:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Krylia Sovetov stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Krylia Sovetov at home: 7W 3D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Krylia Sovetov are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Ural — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Ural away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Krylia Sovetov are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Krylia Sovetov, 1 for Ural and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 May 2023, ended Krylia Sovetov 3–0 Ural — a Krylia Sovetov win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Krylia Sovetov in-play tendencies (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Ural in-play tendencies (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 64% versus Ural 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 59% | Ural 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 2.01 xG and Ural 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.289 / defence 0.940 | Ural attack 0.956 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.099. Krylia Sovetov carry an above-average attack rating of 1.289 — their 2.01 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Krylia Sovetov's last 44 games and Ural's last 44.
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 61% | Draw 21% | Ural 18%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 1.64 | Draw 4.66 | Ural 5.65. The model has a clear lean to Krylia Sovetov (61%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Krylia Sovetov are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Krylia Sovetov's last 10 home games and Ural's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Krylia Sovetov 60% (last 10 home games) | Ural 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Ural | Competition: Premier League, matchday 15 | Venue: Solidarnost Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 61% | Draw 21% | Ural 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Krylia Sovetov 2.01 / Ural 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.289 / def 0.940 | Ural attack 0.956 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Ural xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Ural FAQs
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Ural kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Ural kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Solidarnost Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Ural?
Krylia Sovetov 3 - 1 Ural.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Ural being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Ural part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Ural is a Premier League fixture (matchday 15) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Ural?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 61% chance of winning, Ural a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Ural?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Ural will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Ural have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Krylia Sovetov's attack at 1.29x the league average against Ural's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 2.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ural's attack versus Krylia Sovetov's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Krylia Sovetov's last 44 games and Ural's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
61%
1.64
21%
4.66
18%
5.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
3.00
0.99
Ural xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
5.65
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
13%
7.46
Win to Nil
23%
4.41
2%
42.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Ural Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Ural?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Ural expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 0.99 for Ural, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Ural?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Krylia Sovetov come into this having played 44 games, going 14W 12D 18L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Ural sit at 1.18 PPG from 44 outings (14W 10D 20L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Krylia Sovetov on 1.23 PPG, Ural on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Krylia Sovetov's home form reads 9W 7D 5L across their last 21 home games, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Ural have taken 1.14 points per game from their last 21 away games (6W 6D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Krylia Sovetov come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Ural are on 1.07 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Krylia Sovetov have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
Ural
Blended
Krylia Sovetov (Home) vs Ural (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
Ural
Blended
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Ural Form FAQs
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Ural in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 14W 12D 18L in their last 44 games (1.23 PPG), while Ural have gone 14W 10D 20L in their last 44 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Ural away?
Krylia Sovetov's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.62 PPG; Ural away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Krylia Sovetov have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 May 2023, when Krylia Sovetov won Krylia Sovetov 3-0 Ural.
Krylia Sovetov's record when hosting Ural specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Krylia Sovetov
1
Draws
1
Ural
Recent Meetings
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Ural H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Ural?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Krylia Sovetov have won 4, Ural have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Ural last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 April 2024: Ural 1-2 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and Ural?
Krylia Sovetov have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Ural are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 52%, Ural 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Krylia Sovetov) and 52% (Ural).
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ural in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Ural away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Ural Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Krylia Sovetov and Ural matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 38% of Ural's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Krylia Sovetov and Ural matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 52% of Ural's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Ural matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 67% of Ural's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Krylia Sovetov cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Ural.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Krylia Sovetov beat Ural 3-1 at Solidarnost Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 2.01 xG and Ural 0.99 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 1.29 / defence 0.94 against Ural attack 0.96 / defence 1.04, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 61% | Draw 21% | Ural 18%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 59%, Ural 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Ural's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Krylia Sovetov 1.23 PPG, Ural 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Krylia Sovetov win broke the near-deadlock. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm. Ural (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.