Krylia Sovetov 3-3 Lokomotiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Krylia Sovetov at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Krylia Sovetov vs Lokomotiv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Krylia Sovetov and Lokomotiv meet at Solidarnost Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 November 2023 at 10:00 UTC.
Form
Krylia Sovetov (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Krylia Sovetov's home record at Solidarnost Arena: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Krylia Sovetov are significantly better at Solidarnost Arena than their overall form suggests.
Lokomotiv's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lokomotiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lokomotiv have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Krylia Sovetov have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Lokomotiv in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Krylia Sovetov, 2 for Lokomotiv and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Krylia Sovetov — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Lokomotiv — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Krylia Sovetov 64% and Lokomotiv 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 60% | Lokomotiv 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.81 xG and Lokomotiv 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.351 / defence 0.956 | Lokomotiv attack 1.171 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.087. Krylia Sovetov carry an above-average attack strength of 1.351 — their λ of 1.81 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 45 Krylia Sovetov games / 45 Lokomotiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 50% | Draw 25% | Lokomotiv 25%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Lokomotiv 4.00. Krylia Sovetov hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Krylia Sovetov as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Krylia Sovetov if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Krylia Sovetov 60% | Lokomotiv 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Lokomotiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Solidarnost Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 50% | Draw 25% | Lokomotiv 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.81 / Lokomotiv 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.351 / def 0.956 | Lokomotiv attack 1.171 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Lokomotiv xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Lokomotiv kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Lokomotiv kicked off at 10:00 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Solidarnost Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Lokomotiv?
Krylia Sovetov 3 - 3 Lokomotiv.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Lokomotiv being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Lokomotiv part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Lokomotiv is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Lokomotiv?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 50% chance of winning, Lokomotiv a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Lokomotiv?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Lokomotiv will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Lokomotiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Lokomotiv?
Record (5 meetings): Krylia Sovetov 0W | Draws 3 | Lokomotiv 2W.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Lokomotiv in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Lokomotiv (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Krylia Sovetov's attack at 1.35x the league average against Lokomotiv's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lokomotiv's attack (1.17x) against Krylia Sovetov's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
50%
2.00
25%
3.93
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
3.02
1.22
Lokomotiv xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
16%
6.09
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
4%
24.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.7 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Lokomotiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Lokomotiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.22 for Lokomotiv, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Lokomotiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 45 outings, Krylia Sovetov have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 15W 12D 18L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lokomotiv's form line: 19W 12D 14L from 45 games, 1.53 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-W. The sample for Lokomotiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Krylia Sovetov against 1.53 for Lokomotiv. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Krylia Sovetov have posted 1.68 PPG from 22 outings (10W 7D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Krylia Sovetov are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Lokomotiv have gone 10W 5D 7L from 22 away games — 1.59 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Lokomotiv are on 1.67 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Krylia Sovetov have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Lokomotiv in 62%.
Last 45 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
Lokomotiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Lokomotiv in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 15W 12D 18L in their last 45 games (1.27 PPG), while Lokomotiv have gone 19W 12D 14L in their last 45 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Lokomotiv away?
Krylia Sovetov's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.68 PPG; Lokomotiv away: 1.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Krylia Sovetov won 5-1 on 28 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Krylia Sovetov have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lokomotiv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Krylia Sovetov
5
Draws
3
Lokomotiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Lokomotiv?
From 10 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 2, Lokomotiv have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Lokomotiv last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Krylia Sovetov 2-0 Lokomotiv.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and Lokomotiv?
Lokomotiv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Lokomotiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 54%, Lokomotiv 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Krylia Sovetov) and 59% (Lokomotiv).
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Lokomotiv in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Lokomotiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play Lokomotiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 50% of Lokomotiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs Lokomotiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 59% of Lokomotiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Lokomotiv tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Lokomotiv in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Krylia Sovetov and Lokomotiv share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Solidarnost Arena, Regular Season - 16, as Krylia Sovetov and Lokomotiv drew 3-3 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.81 xG and Lokomotiv 1.22 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lokomotiv outscored their 1.22 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 1.35 / defence 0.96 against Lokomotiv attack 1.17 / defence 0.91, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 50% | Draw 25% | Lokomotiv 25%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 60%, Lokomotiv 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Lokomotiv's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Krylia Sovetov 1.27 PPG, Lokomotiv 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lokomotiv (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.