Zenit 1-1 FC Krasnodar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zenit at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Zenit face FC Krasnodar.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zenit host FC Krasnodar at Saint-Petersburg Stadium in Premier League (matchday 15). Kick-off is Saturday 11 November 2023 at 16:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Zenit have gone 7W 1D 2L — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Zenit have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, FC Krasnodar stand at 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, FC Krasnodar have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Zenit at 2.20 PPG versus FC Krasnodar's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Zenit's games and 60% of FC Krasnodar's (from Zenit's last 10 home games and FC Krasnodar's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Zenit, 0 for FC Krasnodar and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 13 May 2023, ended Zenit 2–2 FC Krasnodar — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Zenit in-play tendencies (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
FC Krasnodar in-play tendencies (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zenit 50% versus FC Krasnodar 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zenit 59% | FC Krasnodar 59%). Note also that FC Krasnodar surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Zenit recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zenit 1.60 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zenit attack 1.300 / defence 1.013 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.133 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.100. Zenit carry an above-average attack rating of 1.300 — their 1.60 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Zenit's last 44 games and FC Krasnodar's last 44.
Result probabilities: Zenit 45% | Draw 26% | FC Krasnodar 30%. Fair-value odds: Zenit 2.24 | Draw 3.90 | FC Krasnodar 3.37. Zenit hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zenit are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zenit offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Zenit's last 10 home games and FC Krasnodar's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Zenit 70% (last 10 home games) | FC Krasnodar 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zenit vs FC Krasnodar | Competition: Premier League, matchday 15 | Venue: Saint-Petersburg Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zenit 45% | Draw 26% | FC Krasnodar 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Zenit 1.60 / FC Krasnodar 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Zenit attack 1.300 / def 1.013 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.133 / def 0.814 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Zenit (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Zenit xG
Expected Goals
1.26
FC Krasnodar xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zenit vs FC Krasnodar FAQs
What time does Zenit vs FC Krasnodar kick off?
Zenit vs FC Krasnodar kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Saint-Petersburg Stadium.
What was the final score in Zenit vs FC Krasnodar?
Zenit 1 - 1 FC Krasnodar.
Where is Zenit vs FC Krasnodar being played?
The match is being played at Saint-Petersburg Stadium.
What competition is Zenit vs FC Krasnodar part of?
Zenit vs FC Krasnodar is a Premier League fixture (matchday 15) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Zenit vs FC Krasnodar?
Our statistical model gives Zenit a 45% chance of winning, FC Krasnodar a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zenit vs FC Krasnodar?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Zenit and FC Krasnodar will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Zenit vs FC Krasnodar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Zenit's attack at 1.30x the league average against FC Krasnodar's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Krasnodar's attack versus Zenit's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Zenit's last 44 games and FC Krasnodar's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
45%
2.24
26%
3.90
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Zenit xG
Total xG
2.86
1.26
FC Krasnodar xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
20%
4.94
Win to Nil
13%
7.90
6%
16.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.5 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zenit vs FC Krasnodar Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zenit vs FC Krasnodar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Zenit and FC Krasnodar expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Zenit and 1.26 for FC Krasnodar, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Zenit vs FC Krasnodar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, Zenit have picked up 2.25 PPG on a 30W 9D 5L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
FC Krasnodar's form line: 22W 13D 9L from 44 games, 1.80 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Zenit are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Krasnodar.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Zenit have posted 2.48 PPG from their last 21 home games (17W 1D 3L).
On the road, FC Krasnodar have gone 7W 8D 6L from their last 21 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.80 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Krasnodar's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zenit come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zenit are averaging 2.34 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; FC Krasnodar are on 1.93 scored and 1.25 conceded. FC Krasnodar's attacking output running into Zenit's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Zenit have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games; FC Krasnodar in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zenit
Blended
FC Krasnodar
Blended
Zenit (Home) vs FC Krasnodar (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zenit
Blended
FC Krasnodar
Blended
❓ Zenit vs FC Krasnodar Form FAQs
What form are Zenit and FC Krasnodar in coming into this match?
Zenit have gone 30W 9D 5L in their last 44 games (2.25 PPG), while FC Krasnodar have gone 22W 13D 9L in their last 44 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zenit at home or FC Krasnodar away?
Zenit's home record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zenit at home: 2.48 PPG; FC Krasnodar away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Zenit or FC Krasnodar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zenit have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, FC Krasnodar in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Apr 2025, when Zenit won Zenit 4-1 FC Krasnodar.
Zenit's record when hosting FC Krasnodar specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Zenit
3
Draws
1
FC Krasnodar
Recent Meetings
❓ Zenit vs FC Krasnodar H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zenit and FC Krasnodar?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Zenit have won 6, FC Krasnodar have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Zenit and FC Krasnodar last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: FC Krasnodar 2-3 Zenit.
Who has won more matches between Zenit and FC Krasnodar?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zenit are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zenit 52%, FC Krasnodar 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for Zenit and 57% for FC Krasnodar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zenit keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; FC Krasnodar in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zenit home games / FC Krasnodar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zenit vs FC Krasnodar Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zenit and FC Krasnodar matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Zenit's recent matches and 57% of FC Krasnodar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Zenit and FC Krasnodar matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of Zenit's matches and 57% of FC Krasnodar's.
Do Zenit and FC Krasnodar matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Zenit's recent matches and 76% of FC Krasnodar's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zenit and FC Krasnodar share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zenit and FC Krasnodar finished level at 1-1 at Saint-Petersburg Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zenit 1.60 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.26 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zenit attack 1.30 / defence 1.01 against FC Krasnodar attack 1.13 / defence 0.81, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zenit 45% | Draw 26% | FC Krasnodar 30%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zenit 59%, FC Krasnodar 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zenit's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.80. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Zenit (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.95 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.