CSKA Moscow 0-0 Spartak Moscow – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Spartak Moscow at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as CSKA Moscow face Spartak Moscow.

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Analysis & Preview

Spartak Moscow travel to VEB Arena to take on CSKA Moscow in Premier League (matchday 21). The game is scheduled for Thursday 25 April 2024 at 19:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, CSKA Moscow stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, CSKA Moscow have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — CSKA Moscow are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Spartak Moscow have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

When travelling, Spartak Moscow have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: CSKA Moscow 1.30 PPG, Spartak Moscow 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, CSKA Moscow have won 1, Spartak Moscow 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 8 Oct 2023, ended CSKA Moscow 2–2 Spartak Moscow — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

CSKA Moscow in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; of the 29 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Spartak Moscow in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — CSKA Moscow 63% and Spartak Moscow 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (CSKA Moscow 59% | Spartak Moscow 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: CSKA Moscow surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Spartak Moscow have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects CSKA Moscow 1.48 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: CSKA Moscow attack 1.260 / defence 1.034 | Spartak Moscow attack 1.135 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.341. CSKA Moscow carry an above-average attack rating of 1.260 — their 1.48 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from CSKA Moscow's last 54 games and Spartak Moscow's last 54.

Result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 36% | Draw 24% | Spartak Moscow 40%. Fair-value odds: CSKA Moscow 2.78 | Draw 4.16 | Spartak Moscow 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.48 / 1.57) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Spartak Moscow at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spartak Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (CSKA Moscow's last 10 home games and Spartak Moscow's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: CSKA Moscow 70% (last 10 home games) | Spartak Moscow 40% (last 10 away games).

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