Ural 0-1 FC Rostov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Rostov at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ural vs FC Rostov encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 21 as Ural welcome FC Rostov to Ekaterinburg Arena. Kick-off is set for Thursday 25 April 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Ural have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ural, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ural's home record at Ekaterinburg Arena: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Rostov — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for FC Rostov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Rostov away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. FC Rostov are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Ural, 1 for FC Rostov and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ural in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
FC Rostov in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ural 48% versus FC Rostov 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ural 56% | FC Rostov 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ural 1.26 xG and FC Rostov 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ural attack 0.990 / defence 1.167 | FC Rostov attack 1.103 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.349. Data: 54 Ural games / 54 FC Rostov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ural 27% | Draw 24% | FC Rostov 48%. Fair-value odds: Ural 3.70 | Draw 4.17 | FC Rostov 2.08. FC Rostov hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.26 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Rostov at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Rostov offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ural 70% | FC Rostov 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ural vs FC Rostov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Ekaterinburg Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 25 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ural 27% | Draw 24% | FC Rostov 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Ural 1.26 / FC Rostov 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Ural attack 0.990 / def 1.167 | FC Rostov attack 1.103 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: FC Rostov (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Ural xG
Expected Goals
1.74
FC Rostov xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ural vs FC Rostov kick off?
Ural vs FC Rostov kicked off at 14:00 on Thursday 25 April 2024 at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What was the final score in Ural vs FC Rostov?
Ural 0 - 1 FC Rostov.
Where is Ural vs FC Rostov being played?
The match is being played at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What competition is Ural vs FC Rostov part of?
Ural vs FC Rostov is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Ural vs FC Rostov?
Our statistical model gives Ural a 27% chance of winning, FC Rostov a 48% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC Rostov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ural vs FC Rostov?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Ural and FC Rostov will score (BTTS).
Will Ural vs FC Rostov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and FC Rostov?
Record (5 meetings): Ural 2W | Draws 2 | FC Rostov 1W.
What form are Ural and FC Rostov in?
Ural (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. FC Rostov (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ural's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against FC Rostov's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, FC Rostov's attack versus Ural's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Rostov Win
27%
3.64
24%
4.09
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Ural xG
Total xG
3.00
1.74
FC Rostov xG
3.64
27%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
18%
5.67
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
5%
20.64
14%
7.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.6 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.9 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.9 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ural vs FC Rostov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Ural and FC Rostov expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Ural and 1.74 for FC Rostov, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Ural vs FC Rostov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, Ural have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 16W 12D 26L record — L-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Ural is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Rostov's form line: 24W 15D 15L from 54 games, 1.61 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-L. The sample for FC Rostov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Rostov are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ural.
Venue Form
On home soil, Ural have posted 1.31 PPG from 26 outings (10W 4D 12L).
On the road, FC Rostov have gone 8W 8D 10L from 26 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Ural are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; FC Rostov are on 1.56 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Rostov in 67%.
Last 54 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ural
Blended
FC Rostov
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ural and FC Rostov in coming into this match?
Ural have gone 16W 12D 26L in their last 54 games (1.11 PPG), while FC Rostov have gone 24W 15D 15L in their last 54 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ural at home or FC Rostov away?
Ural's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ural at home: 1.31 PPG; FC Rostov away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Dec 2021, when Ural won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ural's record when hosting FC Rostov specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Ural
2
Draws
2
FC Rostov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and FC Rostov?
From 6 meetings on record, Ural have won 2, FC Rostov have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ural and FC Rostov last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2024, when Ural 0-1 FC Rostov.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ural are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
FC Rostov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ural 58%, FC Rostov 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Ural) and 58% (FC Rostov). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ural have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ural home games / FC Rostov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ural play FC Rostov?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Ural's games and 65% of FC Rostov's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ural vs FC Rostov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Ural's matches and 58% of FC Rostov's.
Do Ural and FC Rostov tend to score early?
Ural have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, FC Rostov in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Rostov edge out Ural 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Rostov beat Ural 0-1 at Ekaterinburg Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ural 1.26 xG and FC Rostov 1.74 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ural fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ural attack 0.99 / defence 1.17 against FC Rostov attack 1.10 / defence 0.94, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ural 27% | Draw 24% | FC Rostov 48%, with FC Rostov to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ural 56%, FC Rostov 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ural's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Rostov's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Rostov arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.11. That form edge translated into the three points. Ural (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Rostov (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.