CSKA Moscow 1-2 Akhmat – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours CSKA Moscow (63%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as CSKA Moscow face Akhmat.

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Full Analysis

VEB Arena plays host to CSKA Moscow versus Akhmat in Premier League (matchday 25). Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 18:30 UK time.

Form

CSKA Moscow (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, CSKA Moscow have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — CSKA Moscow are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Akhmat's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Akhmat's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

The form ledger tips toward CSKA Moscow. A 0.80 PPG lead over Akhmat (1.60 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H History

Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, CSKA Moscow have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins, with Akhmat managing 1 and 0 draws.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 30 Jul 2023, ended CSKA Moscow 3–2 Akhmat — a CSKA Moscow win.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both CSKA Moscow and goals — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 3.8 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

Trading Data

CSKA Moscow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; of the 29 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Akhmat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — CSKA Moscow 62% and Akhmat 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (CSKA Moscow 58% | Akhmat 60%). Note also that Akhmat surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while CSKA Moscow recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 56% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects CSKA Moscow 2.08 xG and Akhmat 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: CSKA Moscow attack 1.328 / defence 0.974 | Akhmat attack 0.818 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.172. CSKA Moscow carry an above-average attack rating of 1.328 — their 2.08 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from CSKA Moscow's last 53 games and Akhmat's last 53.

Result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 63% | Draw 22% | Akhmat 15%. Fair-value odds: CSKA Moscow 1.59 | Draw 4.49 | Akhmat 6.65. The model has a clear lean to CSKA Moscow (63%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates CSKA Moscow as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: CSKA Moscow 70% (last 10 home games) | Akhmat 40% (last 10 away games).

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