Legia Warszawa 2-2 Warta Poznań – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Legia Warszawa take on Warta Poznań.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Legia Warszawa welcome Warta Poznań to Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa (matchday 16). Kick-off is Saturday 25 November 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Legia Warszawa have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Legia Warszawa at home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Legia Warszawa are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Warta Poznań stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Warta Poznań away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Legia Warszawa) versus 1.20 (Warta Poznań). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Legia Warszawa, 2 for Warta Poznań and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.2 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 21 Apr 2023, ended Legia Warszawa 0–1 Warta Poznań — a Warta Poznań win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Legia Warszawa trading profile (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Warta Poznań trading profile (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 52% versus Warta Poznań 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 54% | Warta Poznań 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.12 xG and Warta Poznań 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.029 / defence 0.958 | Warta Poznań attack 0.947 / defence 0.769. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.173. Warta Poznań bring a tight defence (rating 0.769, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Legia Warszawa's projected output down. Data: built from Legia Warszawa's last 48 games and Warta Poznań's last 49.
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 34% | Draw 34% | Warta Poznań 31%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.93 | Draw 2.90 | Warta Poznań 3.19. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Legia Warszawa 60% (last 10 home games) | Warta Poznań 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 16 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 25 November 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 34% | Draw 34% | Warta Poznań 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Legia Warszawa 1.12 / Warta Poznań 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.029 / def 0.958 | Warta Poznań attack 0.947 / def 0.769 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Warta Poznań xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Legia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań FAQs
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań?
Legia Warszawa 2 - 2 Warta Poznań.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 16) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 34% chance of winning, Warta Poznań a 31% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Warta Poznań will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Legia Warszawa's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Warta Poznań's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Warta Poznań's attack versus Legia Warszawa's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Legia Warszawa's last 48 games and Warta Poznań's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.93
34%
2.90
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.19
1.06
Warta Poznań xG
2.93
34%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
12%
8.49
10%
9.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 12.0 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Legia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Warta Poznań expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.06 for Warta Poznań, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Legia Warszawa's recent record stands at 26W 12D 10L from 48 games, a 1.88 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five.
Warta Poznań, meanwhile, have gone 16W 14D 18L across 48 games — 1.29 PPG, with D-W-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Legia Warszawa by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Warta Poznań heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Legia Warszawa have managed 15W 6D 2L from their last 23 home games — 2.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Warta Poznań's away record stands at 10W 4D 9L across their last 23 away games, a 1.48 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Warta Poznań are on 1.06 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Warta Poznań in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Warta Poznań
Blended
Legia Warszawa (Home) vs Warta Poznań (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Warta Poznań
Blended
❓ Legia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań Form FAQs
What form are Legia Warszawa and Warta Poznań in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 26W 12D 10L in their last 48 games (1.88 PPG), while Warta Poznań have gone 16W 14D 18L in their last 48 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Warta Poznań away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 2.22 PPG; Warta Poznań away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or Warta Poznań been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Warta Poznań in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent in our data was on 19 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Legia Warszawa's record when hosting Warta Poznań specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Legia Warszawa
1
Draws
2
Warta Poznań
Recent Meetings
❓ Legia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Warta Poznań?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Legia Warszawa have won 3, Warta Poznań have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Warta Poznań last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 May 2024: Warta Poznań 0-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Warta Poznań?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Warta Poznań are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 65%, Warta Poznań 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Legia Warszawa) and 26% (Warta Poznań).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Warta Poznań in 44%; Warta Poznań in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Warta Poznań away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Legia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Legia Warszawa and Warta Poznań matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 30% of Warta Poznań's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Legia Warszawa and Warta Poznań matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 70% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 26% of Warta Poznań's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Warta Poznań matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 70% of Warta Poznań's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Legia Warszawa and Warta Poznań share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 16, as Legia Warszawa and Warta Poznań drew 2-2 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.12 xG and Warta Poznań 1.06 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Legia Warszawa beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Warta Poznań outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.03 / defence 0.96 against Warta Poznań attack 0.95 / defence 0.77, drawn from 48/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 34% | Draw 34% | Warta Poznań 31%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 54%, Warta Poznań 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Warta Poznań's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.