Legia Warszawa 0-0 Lech Poznan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Legia Warszawa at 51%, yet in-form Lech Poznan provide a compelling counter-argument — this Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lech Poznan make the trip to Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego to face Legia Warszawa in Ekstraklasa (matchday 15). The match kicks off on Sunday 12 November 2023 at 16:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Legia Warszawa have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Legia Warszawa's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Legia Warszawa are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Lech Poznan's record over their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Lech Poznan have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Lech Poznan are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Legia Warszawa's last 10 home games and Lech Poznan's last 10 away games) — Legia Warszawa have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Lech Poznan in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Apr 2023, ended Legia Warszawa 2–2 Lech Poznan — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Legia Warszawa half-time and goal-timing data (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Lech Poznan half-time and goal-timing data (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 53% versus Lech Poznan 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 55% | Lech Poznan 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.90 xG and Lech Poznan 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.143 / defence 1.068 | Lech Poznan attack 0.990 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.485 / away 1.190. Data: built from Legia Warszawa's last 47 games and Lech Poznan's last 48.
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 51% | Draw 25% | Lech Poznan 24%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 1.95 | Draw 4.07 | Lech Poznan 4.15. Legia Warszawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.90 / 1.26) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Legia Warszawa as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lech Poznan (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Legia Warszawa's last 10 home games and Lech Poznan's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Legia Warszawa 60% (last 10 home games) | Lech Poznan 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 15 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 12 November 2023 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 51% | Draw 25% | Lech Poznan 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Legia Warszawa 1.90 / Lech Poznan 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.143 / def 1.068 | Lech Poznan attack 0.990 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.485 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Lech Poznan xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan FAQs
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan?
Legia Warszawa 0 - 0 Lech Poznan.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 15) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 51% chance of winning, Lech Poznan a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Legia Warszawa's attack rating (1.14) and Lech Poznan's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.90 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lech Poznan's attack (0.99x) against Legia Warszawa's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from Legia Warszawa's last 47 games and Lech Poznan's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
51%
1.95
25%
4.07
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
3.16
1.26
Lech Poznan xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
15%
6.71
Win to Nil
15%
6.85
4%
27.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.1 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.26 for Lech Poznan, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 47 outings, Legia Warszawa have picked up 1.89 PPG on a 26W 11D 10L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Lech Poznan's form line: 25W 14D 8L from 47 games, 1.89 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.89 PPG for Legia Warszawa against 1.89 for Lech Poznan. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Legia Warszawa have posted 2.30 PPG from their last 23 home games (16W 5D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.89 PPG overall — Legia Warszawa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Lech Poznan have gone 10W 10D 3L from their last 23 away games — 1.74 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Lech Poznan are on 1.68 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Lech Poznan in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Lech Poznan
Blended
Legia Warszawa (Home) vs Lech Poznan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Lech Poznan
Blended
❓ Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan Form FAQs
What form are Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 26W 11D 10L in their last 47 games (1.89 PPG), while Lech Poznan have gone 25W 14D 8L in their last 47 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Lech Poznan away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 2.30 PPG; Lech Poznan away: 1.74 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or Lech Poznan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Lech Poznan in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Lech Poznan have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lech Poznan won Lech Poznan 4-0 Legia Warszawa on 26 Apr 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Legia Warszawa have gone 0W 3D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Lech Poznan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Legia Warszawa
5
Draws
4
Lech Poznan
Recent Meetings
❓ Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Legia Warszawa have won 1, Lech Poznan have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: Legia Warszawa 1-2 Lech Poznan.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Lech Poznan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 65%, Lech Poznan 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Legia Warszawa and 52% for Lech Poznan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Lech Poznan in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Lech Poznan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Legia Warszawa's games and 61% of Lech Poznan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Legia Warszawa's matches and 52% of Lech Poznan's.
Do Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 74% of Lech Poznan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Legia Warszawa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 15, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.90 xG and Lech Poznan 1.26 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Legia Warszawa fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Lech Poznan landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.14 / defence 1.07 against Lech Poznan attack 0.99 / defence 1.12, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 51% | Draw 25% | Lech Poznan 24%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 55%, Lech Poznan 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lech Poznan's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.89 PPG, Lech Poznan 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.