Warta Poznań 1-2 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jagiellonia at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Warta Poznań vs Jagiellonia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Respect Energy plays host to Warta Poznań versus Jagiellonia in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Friday 1 December 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Warta Poznań (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Warta Poznań, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Warta Poznań's home record at Stadion Respect Energy: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Respect Energy this season.
Jagiellonia's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D L W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Jagiellonia have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Jagiellonia are 0.70 PPG clear of Warta Poznań in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (1.90 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Warta Poznań 1W, Jagiellonia 1W, 2D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2023, ended 1–3 with Jagiellonia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Warta Poznań goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Jagiellonia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Warta Poznań 38% versus Jagiellonia 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Warta Poznań 28% | Jagiellonia 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Warta Poznań 1.18 xG and Jagiellonia 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Warta Poznań attack 0.697 / defence 1.030 | Jagiellonia attack 1.220 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.187. Warta Poznań's attack strength of 0.697 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Jagiellonia have an above-average attack strength of 1.220 — the away xG of 1.49 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 50 Warta Poznań games / 50 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Warta Poznań 28% | Draw 30% | Jagiellonia 42%. Fair-value odds: Warta Poznań 3.57 | Draw 3.33 | Jagiellonia 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jagiellonia as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Warta Poznań 40% | Jagiellonia 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Warta Poznań vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion Respect Energy • Kick-off: Friday 1 Dec 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Warta Poznań 28% | Draw 30% | Jagiellonia 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Warta Poznań 1.18 / Jagiellonia 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Warta Poznań attack 0.697 / def 1.030 | Jagiellonia attack 1.220 / def 1.197 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Warta Poznań xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Jagiellonia xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Warta Poznań vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Warta Poznań vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 1 December 2023 at Stadion Respect Energy.
What was the final score in Warta Poznań vs Jagiellonia?
Warta Poznań 1 - 2 Jagiellonia.
Where is Warta Poznań vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Respect Energy.
What competition is Warta Poznań vs Jagiellonia part of?
Warta Poznań vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Warta Poznań vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Warta Poznań a 28% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Warta Poznań vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Warta Poznań and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Warta Poznań vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Jagiellonia?
Record (4 meetings): Warta Poznań 1W | Draws 2 | Jagiellonia 1W.
What form are Warta Poznań and Jagiellonia in?
Warta Poznań (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Jagiellonia (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Warta Poznań's attack at 0.70x the league average against Jagiellonia's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jagiellonia's attack (1.22x) against Warta Poznań's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
28%
3.62
30%
3.29
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Warta Poznań xG
Total xG
2.67
1.49
Jagiellonia xG
3.62
28%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
6%
16.08
13%
7.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.3 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.2 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Warta Poznań vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Warta Poznań and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Warta Poznań and 1.49 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Warta Poznań vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Warta Poznań come into this having played 50 games, going 16W 15D 19L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-D. The sample for Warta Poznań is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jagiellonia sit at 1.44 PPG from 50 outings (18W 18D 14L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Warta Poznań against 1.44 for Jagiellonia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Warta Poznań's home form reads 6W 10D 9L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Jagiellonia have taken 0.88 points per game from 25 outings (3W 13D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jagiellonia's season.
Attack vs Defence
Warta Poznań are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.68 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 68%.
Last 50 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Warta Poznań
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Warta Poznań and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Warta Poznań have gone 16W 15D 19L in their last 50 games (1.26 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 18W 18D 14L in their last 50 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Warta Poznań at home or Jagiellonia away?
Warta Poznań's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Warta Poznań at home: 1.12 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Warta Poznań or Jagiellonia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Warta Poznań have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Jagiellonia in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Jagiellonia go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jagiellonia won 3-0 on 25 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Warta Poznań have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Jagiellonia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Warta Poznań
2
Draws
3
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Jagiellonia?
From 6 meetings on record, Warta Poznań have won 1, Jagiellonia have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Warta Poznań and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2024, when Jagiellonia 3-0 Warta Poznań.
Who has won more matches between Warta Poznań and Jagiellonia?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Warta Poznań are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Warta Poznań 44%, Jagiellonia 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Warta Poznań) and 52% (Jagiellonia).
On the defensive side: Warta Poznań have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Warta Poznań home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Warta Poznań play Jagiellonia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Warta Poznań's games and 72% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Warta Poznań vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Warta Poznań's recent games and 52% of Jagiellonia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Warta Poznań and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Warta Poznań have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jagiellonia edge out Warta Poznań 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Warta Poznań 1-2 at Stadion Respect Energy, Regular Season - 17, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Warta Poznań 1.18 xG and Jagiellonia 1.49 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Warta Poznań attack 0.70 / defence 1.03 against Jagiellonia attack 1.22 / defence 1.20, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Warta Poznań 28% | Draw 30% | Jagiellonia 42%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Warta Poznań 28%, Jagiellonia 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Warta Poznań's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Warta Poznań 1.26 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jagiellonia win broke the near-deadlock. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.