ŁKS Łódź 1-0 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 36% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ŁKS Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pogon Szczecin make the trip to Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz to face ŁKS Łódź in Ekstraklasa (matchday 5). The match kicks off on Sunday 20 August 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
ŁKS Łódź's record over their last 4 games: 1W 0D 3L (0.75 PPG). Last five: L L W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Pogon Szczecin (all games): 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 — 2.20 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Pogon Szczecin's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Pogon Szczecin arrive in superior form — a 1.45 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.75) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
ŁKS Łódź goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 4 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 75% of games.
Pogon Szczecin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 4 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 25% of ŁKS Łódź's games and 25% of Pogon Szczecin's. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ŁKS Łódź 50% | Pogon Szczecin 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ŁKS Łódź 1.10 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ŁKS Łódź attack 0.954 / defence 1.126 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.034 / defence 0.823. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 0.967. Data: built from ŁKS Łódź's last 4 games and Pogon Szczecin's last 37.
Result probabilities: ŁKS Łódź 35% | Draw 29% | Pogon Szczecin 36%. Fair-value odds: ŁKS Łódź 2.86 | Draw 3.46 | Pogon Szczecin 2.77. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: ŁKS Łódź 25% (last 4 games) | Pogon Szczecin 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ŁKS Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 5 | Venue: Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz • Kick-off: Sunday 20 August 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ŁKS Łódź 35% | Draw 29% | Pogon Szczecin 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG ŁKS Łódź 1.10 / Pogon Szczecin 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: ŁKS Łódź attack 0.954 / def 1.126 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.034 / def 0.823 | league avg home 1.404 / away 0.967 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
ŁKS Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Pogon Szczecin xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ ŁKS Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin FAQs
What time does ŁKS Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
ŁKS Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 20 August 2023 at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz.
What was the final score in ŁKS Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin?
ŁKS Łódź 1 - 0 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is ŁKS Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz.
What competition is ŁKS Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
ŁKS Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 5) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win ŁKS Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives ŁKS Łódź a 35% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in ŁKS Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both ŁKS Łódź and Pogon Szczecin will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will ŁKS Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from ŁKS Łódź's attack rating (0.95) and Pogon Szczecin's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pogon Szczecin's attack (1.03x) against ŁKS Łódź's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from ŁKS Łódź's last 4 games and Pogon Szczecin's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
35%
2.86
29%
3.46
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
ŁKS Łódź xG
Total xG
2.23
1.12
Pogon Szczecin xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
11%
8.81
12%
8.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 12.1 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ ŁKS Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for ŁKS Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are ŁKS Łódź and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for ŁKS Łódź and 1.12 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for ŁKS Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 4 outings, ŁKS Łódź have picked up 0.75 PPG on a 1W 0D 3L record — L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Pogon Szczecin's form line: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games, 2.25 PPG, last five W-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Pogon Szczecin are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against ŁKS Łódź.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
ŁKS Łódź are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.75 scored and 0.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ŁKS Łódź have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Pogon Szczecin in 25%.
Defensively: Pogon Szczecin in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ŁKS Łódź
Early Season
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
ŁKS Łódź (Home) vs Pogon Szczecin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
ŁKS Łódź
Early Season
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
❓ ŁKS Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin Form FAQs
What form are ŁKS Łódź and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
ŁKS Łódź have gone 1W 0D 3L in their last 4 games (0.75 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 3W 0D 1L in their last 4 (2.25 PPG).
Have ŁKS Łódź or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
ŁKS Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent in our data was on 23 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
ŁKS Łódź
0
Draws
1
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ ŁKS Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between ŁKS Łódź and Pogon Szczecin?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, ŁKS Łódź have won 1, Pogon Szczecin have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did ŁKS Łódź and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 February 2024: Pogon Szczecin 4-2 ŁKS Łódź.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
ŁKS Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (ŁKS Łódź) and 25% (Pogon Szczecin) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (ŁKS Łódź) and 50% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin in 50%; ŁKS Łódź have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ŁKS Łódź home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ ŁKS Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in ŁKS Łódź and Pogon Szczecin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of ŁKS Łódź's recent matches and 25% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are ŁKS Łódź and Pogon Szczecin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of ŁKS Łódź's recent games and 50% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do ŁKS Łódź and Pogon Szczecin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of ŁKS Łódź's recent matches and 100% of Pogon Szczecin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as ŁKS Łódź defy the odds to beat Pogon Szczecin 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ŁKS Łódź beat Pogon Szczecin 1-0 at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz, Regular Season - 5, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ŁKS Łódź 1.10 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.12 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pogon Szczecin landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ŁKS Łódź attack 0.95 / defence 1.13 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.03 / defence 0.82, drawn from 4/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ŁKS Łódź 35% | Draw 29% | Pogon Szczecin 36%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual ŁKS Łódź win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ŁKS Łódź 50%, Pogon Szczecin 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ŁKS Łódź's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 0.75. Form was overturned, with ŁKS Łódź winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. ŁKS Łódź conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Pogon Szczecin managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.