Radomiak Radom 3-2 Warta Poznań – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Radomiak Radom at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Radomiak Radom vs Warta Poznań encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Radomiak Radom and Warta Poznań meet at Stadion Radomiaka Radom in Ekstraklasa (matchday 5). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 August 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Radomiak Radom have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.60 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Warta Poznań (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Warta Poznań have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Radomiak Radom's 1.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Warta Poznań's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from Radomiak Radom's last 10 home games and Warta Poznań's last 10 away games) — Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Warta Poznań in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Radomiak Radom, 2 for Warta Poznań and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 15 May 2023, ended Radomiak Radom 2–1 Warta Poznań — a Radomiak Radom win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (last 38 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Warta Poznań — key trading statistics (last 38 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 37% versus Warta Poznań 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Radomiak Radom 37% | Warta Poznań 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.12 xG and Warta Poznań 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.782 / defence 0.982 | Warta Poznań attack 1.048 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 0.961. Radomiak Radom's attack rating of 0.782 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.12. Data: built from Radomiak Radom's last 38 games and Warta Poznań's last 38.
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 38% | Draw 30% | Warta Poznań 32%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.63 | Draw 3.28 | Warta Poznań 3.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Radomiak Radom are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 65% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Radomiak Radom's last 10 home games and Warta Poznań's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Radomiak Radom 30% (last 10 home games) | Warta Poznań 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Warta Poznań | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 5 | Venue: Stadion Radomiaka Radom • Kick-off: Saturday 19 August 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 38% | Draw 30% | Warta Poznań 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Radomiak Radom 1.12 / Warta Poznań 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.782 / def 0.982 | Warta Poznań attack 1.048 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.402 / away 0.961 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Warta Poznań xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Warta Poznań FAQs
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Warta Poznań kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Warta Poznań kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Stadion Radomiaka Radom.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Warta Poznań?
Radomiak Radom 3 - 2 Warta Poznań.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Warta Poznań being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Radomiaka Radom.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Warta Poznań part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Warta Poznań is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 5) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Warta Poznań?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 38% chance of winning, Warta Poznań a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Warta Poznań?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Warta Poznań will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Warta Poznań have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Radomiak Radom's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Warta Poznań's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — Warta Poznań's attack (1.05x) against Radomiak Radom's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from Radomiak Radom's last 38 games and Warta Poznań's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
38%
2.63
30%
3.28
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.11
0.99
Warta Poznań xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
14%
7.08
10%
9.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.4 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Warta Poznań Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Warta Poznań?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Warta Poznań expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 0.99 for Warta Poznań, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Warta Poznań?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Radomiak Radom's recent record stands at 14W 8D 16L from 38 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Warta Poznań, meanwhile, have gone 13W 11D 14L across 38 games — 1.32 PPG, with L-L-W-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 1.32 for Warta Poznań. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Radomiak Radom have managed 5W 4D 9L from their last 18 home games — 1.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Warta Poznań's away record stands at 7W 3D 8L across their last 18 away games, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Warta Poznań are on 1.13 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
Warta Poznań
Early Season
Radomiak Radom (Home) vs Warta Poznań (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
Warta Poznań
Early Season
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Warta Poznań Form FAQs
What form are Radomiak Radom and Warta Poznań in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 14W 8D 16L in their last 38 games (1.32 PPG), while Warta Poznań have gone 13W 11D 14L in their last 38 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Warta Poznań away?
Warta Poznań's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.06 PPG; Warta Poznań away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Radomiak Radom or Warta Poznań been keeping clean sheets recently?
Radomiak Radom have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Warta Poznań in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Radomiak Radom and Warta Poznań, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent in our data was on 26 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Warta Poznań — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Radomiak Radom
1
Draws
2
Warta Poznań
Recent Meetings
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Warta Poznań H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Warta Poznań?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Radomiak Radom have won 3, Warta Poznań have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Warta Poznań last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 February 2024: Warta Poznań 0-0 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Warta Poznań?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Warta Poznań are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Radomiak Radom) and 28% (Warta Poznań) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 28% for Radomiak Radom and 28% for Warta Poznań.
On the defensive side: Warta Poznań in 39%; Radomiak Radom have failed to score in 50% of games; Warta Poznań in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Warta Poznań away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Warta Poznań Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Radomiak Radom and Warta Poznań matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 28% of Warta Poznań's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Radomiak Radom and Warta Poznań matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 28% of Warta Poznań's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Warta Poznań matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 72% of Warta Poznań's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Radomiak Radom edge out Warta Poznań 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Warta Poznań 3-2 at Stadion Radomiaka Radom, Regular Season - 5, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.12 xG and Warta Poznań 0.99 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Radomiak Radom beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Warta Poznań outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.78 / defence 0.98 against Warta Poznań attack 1.05 / defence 1.02, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 38% | Draw 30% | Warta Poznań 32%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 37%, Warta Poznań 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.
Warta Poznań's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.32 PPG, Warta Poznań 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.