Cracovia Krakow 1-1 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cracovia Krakow host Piast Gliwice at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 21 August 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cracovia Krakow stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Cracovia Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Piast Gliwice have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Piast Gliwice have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Piast Gliwice's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cracovia Krakow at 1.80 PPG versus Piast Gliwice's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Cracovia Krakow, 3 for Piast Gliwice and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2023, ended 1–2 with Piast Gliwice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Cracovia Krakow in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Piast Gliwice in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 43% versus Piast Gliwice 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cracovia Krakow 38% | Piast Gliwice 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.02 xG and Piast Gliwice 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.099 / defence 0.920 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.869 / defence 0.654. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 0.927. Piast Gliwice's defence strength of 0.654 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 37 Cracovia Krakow games / 38 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 41% | Draw 33% | Piast Gliwice 26%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.44 | Draw 3.03 | Piast Gliwice 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Piast Gliwice's lower xG of 0.74 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cracovia Krakow at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.76 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 33% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 50% | Piast Gliwice 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Monday 21 Aug 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 41% | Draw 33% | Piast Gliwice 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 33% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.02 / Piast Gliwice 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.099 / def 0.920 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.869 / def 0.654 | league avg home 1.415 / away 0.927 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Piast Gliwice xG
33%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 21 August 2023 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice?
Cracovia Krakow 1 - 1 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 41% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 26% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice?
Record (4 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 1W | Draws 0 | Piast Gliwice 3W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cracovia Krakow's attack at 1.10x the league average against Piast Gliwice's defence at 0.65x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Piast Gliwice's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
41%
2.43
33%
3.04
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
1.76
0.74
Piast Gliwice xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
2.99
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
20%
5.10
9%
10.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.2 | 12.8 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.5 | 13.0 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.9%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 0.74 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cracovia Krakow come into this having played 37 games, going 14W 11D 12L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Piast Gliwice sit at 1.49 PPG from 37 outings (15W 10D 12L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cracovia Krakow on 1.43 PPG, Piast Gliwice on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cracovia Krakow's home form reads 9W 5D 4L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Piast Gliwice have taken 1.67 points per game from 18 outings (8W 6D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.08 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Early Season
Piast Gliwice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 14W 11D 12L in their last 37 games (1.43 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 15W 10D 12L in their last 37 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.78 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Piast Gliwice specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Cracovia Krakow
5
Draws
4
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice?
From 10 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, Piast Gliwice have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 2-3 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cracovia Krakow see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Cracovia Krakow 33% BTTS, Piast Gliwice 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Cracovia Krakow and 17% for Piast Gliwice.
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Piast Gliwice in 44%; Cracovia Krakow have failed to score in 28% of games; Piast Gliwice in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Cracovia Krakow's recent matches and 33% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 17% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 5, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.02 xG and Piast Gliwice 0.74 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.10 / defence 0.92 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.87 / defence 0.65, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 41% | Draw 33% | Piast Gliwice 26%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 38%, Piast Gliwice 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.43 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.