Willem II 1-1 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Willem II at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Willem II vs Cambuur encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Willem II host Cambuur at Koning Willem II Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 2 February 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Willem II — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Koning Willem II Stadion this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Cambuur have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Willem II have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Willem II have won 0, Cambuur 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2023, ended 0–1 with Cambuur winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Willem II trading profile (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Cambuur trading profile (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Willem II 64% and Cambuur 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Willem II 64% | Cambuur 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 2.37 xG and Cambuur 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 1.209 / defence 0.873 | Cambuur attack 1.343 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 1.629 / away 1.349. Cambuur bring a strong defensive rating of 1.204 — this is suppressing Willem II's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Cambuur have an above-average attack strength of 1.343 — the away xG of 1.58 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 61 Willem II games / 22 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 54% | Draw 21% | Cambuur 25%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 1.85 | Draw 4.76 | Cambuur 4.00. Willem II hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.95. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.95 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.37 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
Cambuur lead the H2H ledger, but Willem II carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Willem II at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 80% | Cambuur 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Cambuur | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 2 Feb 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 54% | Draw 21% | Cambuur 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 73% | xG Willem II 2.37 / Cambuur 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 1.209 / def 0.873 | Cambuur attack 1.343 / def 1.204 | league avg home 1.629 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Willem II (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Cambuur xG
73%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Cambuur kick off?
Willem II vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 2 February 2024 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Cambuur?
Willem II 1 - 1 Cambuur.
Where is Willem II vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Cambuur part of?
Willem II vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 54% chance of winning, Cambuur a 25% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Willem II and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Cambuur?
Record (3 meetings): Willem II 0W | Draws 1 | Cambuur 2W.
What form are Willem II and Cambuur in?
Willem II (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Cambuur (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Willem II's attack at 1.21x the league average against Cambuur's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 2.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cambuur's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.1%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
54%
1.84
21%
4.77
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.2%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
Willem II xG
Total xG
3.95
1.58
Cambuur xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.77
21%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.67
Clean Sheet
21%
4.87
9%
10.69
Win to Nil
11%
8.94
2%
43.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 7.2 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.5 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Willem II and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Willem II and 1.58 for Cambuur, a combined total of 3.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Willem II's recent record stands at 31W 14D 11L from 56 games, a 1.91 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cambuur, meanwhile, have gone 15W 8D 33L across 56 games — 0.95 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Willem II by 0.96 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cambuur heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Willem II have managed 19W 3D 5L from 27 games — 2.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cambuur's away record stands at 7W 5D 15L across 27 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Willem II are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.39 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 31W 14D 11L in their last 56 games (1.91 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 15W 8D 33L in their last 56 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Cambuur away?
Willem II's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 2.22 PPG; Cambuur away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Willem II or Cambuur been keeping clean sheets recently?
Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Cambuur in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Willem II and Cambuur runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Willem II's record when hosting Cambuur specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Willem II
3
Draws
3
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Cambuur?
From 6 meetings on record, Willem II have won 0, Cambuur have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when Willem II 0-1 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Cambuur?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 67%, Cambuur 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Willem II and 67% for Cambuur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cambuur in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Cambuur?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Willem II's games and 63% of Cambuur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Willem II vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Willem II's matches and 67% of Cambuur's.
Do Willem II and Cambuur tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Willem II and Cambuur share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II and Cambuur finished level at 1-1 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 2.37 xG and Cambuur 1.58 xG, a combined 3.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Willem II fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 1.21 / defence 0.87 against Cambuur attack 1.34 / defence 1.20, drawn from 61/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 54% | Draw 21% | Cambuur 25%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 64%, Cambuur 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Cambuur's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.26 scoring average — below par going forward. Cambuur (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.