Willem II 1-1 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Willem II at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Willem II vs Cambuur encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Willem II host Cambuur at Koning Willem II Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 24). Kick-off is Friday 2 February 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Willem II — last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Willem II's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Cambuur have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Cambuur away from home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Willem II have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from Willem II's last 10 home games and Cambuur's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Willem II, 2 for Cambuur and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Sep 2023, ended Willem II 0–1 Cambuur — a Cambuur win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Willem II trading profile (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Cambuur trading profile (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Willem II 64% and Cambuur 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Willem II 64% | Cambuur 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 2.37 xG and Cambuur 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 1.209 / defence 0.873 | Cambuur attack 1.343 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 1.629 / away 1.349. Cambuur's defence rating of 1.204 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Willem II's projected output up. Cambuur have an above-average attack rating of 1.343, which lifts their away xG to 1.58. Data: built from Willem II's last 61 games and Cambuur's last 22.
Result probabilities: Willem II 54% | Draw 21% | Cambuur 25%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 1.84 | Draw 4.77 | Cambuur 4.07. Willem II hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS Yes probability 73% | Total xG 3.95. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.95 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% — both xG figures (2.37 / 1.58) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Willem II at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Willem II's last 10 home games and Cambuur's last 10 away games) averaging 4.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Willem II 80% (last 10 home games) | Cambuur 100% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Cambuur | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 24 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 2 February 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 54% | Draw 21% | Cambuur 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% (Under 25%) | BTTS Yes 73% (No 27%) | xG Willem II 2.37 / Cambuur 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 1.209 / def 0.873 | Cambuur attack 1.343 / def 1.204 | league avg home 1.629 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Willem II (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Cambuur xG
73%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Willem II vs Cambuur FAQs
What time does Willem II vs Cambuur kick off?
Willem II vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 2 February 2024 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Cambuur?
Willem II 1 - 1 Cambuur.
Where is Willem II vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Cambuur part of?
Willem II vs Cambuur is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 24) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 54% chance of winning, Cambuur a 25% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Willem II and Cambuur will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Willem II vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Willem II's attack at 1.21x the league average against Cambuur's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 2.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cambuur's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Willem II's last 61 games and Cambuur's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.1%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
54%
1.84
21%
4.77
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.2%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
Willem II xG
Total xG
3.95
1.58
Cambuur xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.77
21%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.67
Clean Sheet
21%
4.87
9%
10.69
Win to Nil
11%
8.94
2%
43.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 7.2 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.5 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Willem II vs Cambuur Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Willem II and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Willem II and 1.58 for Cambuur, a combined total of 3.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Willem II's recent record stands at 31W 14D 11L from 56 games, a 1.91 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-D in the last five.
Cambuur, meanwhile, have gone 15W 8D 33L across 56 games — 0.95 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Willem II by 0.96 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cambuur heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Willem II have managed 19W 3D 5L from their last 27 home games — 2.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cambuur's away record stands at 7W 5D 15L across their last 27 away games, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Willem II are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.39 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
Willem II (Home) vs Cambuur (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Willem II
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
❓ Willem II vs Cambuur Form FAQs
What form are Willem II and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 31W 14D 11L in their last 56 games (1.91 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 15W 8D 33L in their last 56 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Cambuur away?
Willem II's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 2.22 PPG; Cambuur away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Willem II or Cambuur been keeping clean sheets recently?
Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Cambuur in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. They cover more than one competition — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cambuur have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 24 Oct 2026, when Cambuur won Willem II 1-6 Cambuur.
Willem II's record when hosting Cambuur specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Willem II
3
Draws
4
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Willem II vs Cambuur H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Cambuur?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Willem II have won 0, Cambuur have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Cambuur last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: Willem II 1-6 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Cambuur?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 67%, Cambuur 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Willem II and 67% for Cambuur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cambuur in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Willem II vs Cambuur Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Willem II and Cambuur matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Willem II's games and 63% of Cambuur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Willem II and Cambuur matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Willem II's matches and 67% of Cambuur's.
Do Willem II and Cambuur matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of Willem II's recent matches and 74% of Cambuur's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Willem II and Cambuur share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II and Cambuur finished level at 1-1 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 2.37 xG and Cambuur 1.58 xG, a combined 3.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Willem II fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 1.21 / defence 0.87 against Cambuur attack 1.34 / defence 1.20, drawn from 61/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 54% | Draw 21% | Cambuur 25%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 64%, Cambuur 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Cambuur's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.26 scoring average — below par going forward. Cambuur (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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