MVV 6-1 Telstar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates MVV at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this MVV vs Telstar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
MVV host Telstar at De Geusselt in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 2 February 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
MVV — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
MVV's home record at De Geusselt: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at De Geusselt this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Telstar stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Telstar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Telstar away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
MVV carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for MVV, 3 for Telstar and 0 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Oct 2023, ended 1–2 with Telstar winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
MVV trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Telstar trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — MVV 66% versus Telstar 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (MVV 67% | Telstar 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 1.64 xG and Telstar 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 1.009 / defence 0.910 | Telstar attack 0.678 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.629 / away 1.349. Data: 61 MVV games / 61 Telstar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: MVV 55% | Draw 27% | Telstar 18%. Fair-value odds: MVV 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | Telstar 5.56. The model has a clear lean to MVV (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, MVV are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: MVV 50% | Telstar 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs Telstar | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Friday 2 Feb 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 55% | Draw 27% | Telstar 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG MVV 1.64 / Telstar 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 1.009 / def 0.910 | Telstar attack 0.678 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.629 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: MVV (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
MVV xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Telstar xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does MVV vs Telstar kick off?
MVV vs Telstar kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 2 February 2024 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs Telstar?
MVV 6 - 1 Telstar.
Where is MVV vs Telstar being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs Telstar part of?
MVV vs Telstar is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs Telstar?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 55% chance of winning, Telstar a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making MVV the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs Telstar?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both MVV and Telstar will score (BTTS).
Will MVV vs Telstar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Telstar?
Record (5 meetings): MVV 2W | Draws 0 | Telstar 3W.
What form are MVV and Telstar in?
MVV (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Telstar (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
MVV's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Telstar's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, Telstar's attack versus MVV's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
MVV Win
55%
1.81
27%
3.70
18%
5.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
MVV xG
Total xG
2.47
0.83
Telstar xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
5.62
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
19%
5.13
Win to Nil
24%
4.17
3%
28.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 11.5 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are MVV and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for MVV and 0.83 for Telstar, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs Telstar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
MVV's recent record stands at 26W 10D 25L from 61 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Telstar, meanwhile, have gone 18W 15D 28L across 61 games — 1.13 PPG, with L-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Telstar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: MVV on 1.44 PPG, Telstar on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, MVV have managed 16W 6D 8L from 30 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Telstar's away record stands at 7W 7D 16L across 30 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, MVV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
MVV are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Telstar are on 0.97 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: MVV have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Blended
Telstar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are MVV and Telstar in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 26W 10D 25L in their last 61 games (1.44 PPG), while Telstar have gone 18W 15D 28L in their last 61 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or Telstar away?
MVV's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 1.80 PPG; Telstar away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Feb 2024, when MVV won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
MVV's record when hosting Telstar specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
MVV
0
Draws
4
Telstar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Telstar?
From 8 meetings on record, MVV have won 4, Telstar have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did MVV and Telstar last play each other?
They last met on 22 December 2024, when MVV 5-1 Telstar.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — MVV 67%, Telstar 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (MVV) and 43% (Telstar).
On the defensive side: Telstar in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / Telstar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when MVV play Telstar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of MVV's games and 43% of Telstar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is MVV vs Telstar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of MVV's recent games and 43% of Telstar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do MVV and Telstar tend to score early?
MVV have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Telstar in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant MVV run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Telstar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
MVV beat Telstar 6-1 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 1.64 xG and Telstar 0.83 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. MVV beat their projection by 4.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 1.01 / defence 0.91 against Telstar attack 0.68 / defence 0.99, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it MVV 55% | Draw 27% | Telstar 18%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 67%, Telstar 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
MVV's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Telstar's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — MVV 1.44 PPG, Telstar 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the MVV win broke the near-deadlock. MVV (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm. Telstar (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.