De Graafschap 0-2 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Willem II (41%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as De Graafschap face Willem II.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
De Graafschap and Willem II meet at Stadion De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie (matchday 25). This fixture gets under way on Friday 9 February 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
De Graafschap's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, De Graafschap have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Willem II (all games): 6W 4D 0L across their last 10 — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W D D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Willem II have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Willem II arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Willem II have the stronger record — 3 wins to De Graafschap's 0, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 6 Oct 2023, ended De Graafschap 2–4 Willem II — a Willem II win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Willem II have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 4.7 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Willem II — key trading statistics (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 53% versus Willem II 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 60% | Willem II 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.22 xG and Willem II 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.143 / defence 0.877 | Willem II attack 1.273 / defence 0.663. League average goals — home 1.602 / away 1.300. Willem II bring a tight defence (rating 0.663, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling De Graafschap's projected output down. Willem II have an above-average attack rating of 1.273, which lifts their away xG to 1.45. Data: built from De Graafschap's last 62 games and Willem II's last 62.
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 30% | Draw 29% | Willem II 41%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 3.31 | Draw 3.49 | Willem II 2.43. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Willem II at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Willem II if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: De Graafschap 60% (last 10 home games) | Willem II 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 25 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 9 February 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 30% | Draw 29% | Willem II 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG De Graafschap 1.22 / Willem II 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.143 / def 0.877 | Willem II attack 1.273 / def 0.663 | league avg home 1.602 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Willem II (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Willem II xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ De Graafschap vs Willem II FAQs
What time does De Graafschap vs Willem II kick off?
De Graafschap vs Willem II kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 9 February 2024 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Willem II?
De Graafschap 0 - 2 Willem II.
Where is De Graafschap vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Willem II part of?
De Graafschap vs Willem II is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 25) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 30% chance of winning, Willem II a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both De Graafschap and Willem II will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will De Graafschap vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (1.14) and Willem II's defence rating (0.66), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (1.27x) against De Graafschap's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from De Graafschap's last 62 games and Willem II's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
30%
3.31
29%
3.49
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.67
1.45
Willem II xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
23%
4.26
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
7%
14.10
12%
8.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.1 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ De Graafschap vs Willem II Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.45 for Willem II, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 62 outings, De Graafschap have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 28W 11D 23L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Willem II's form line: 34W 17D 11L from 62 games, 1.92 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for De Graafschap against 1.92 for Willem II. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, De Graafschap have posted 1.77 PPG from their last 30 home games (16W 5D 9L).
On the road, Willem II have gone 12W 12D 6L from their last 30 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
De Graafschap are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.92 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II in 63%.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
Willem II
Blended
De Graafschap (Home) vs Willem II (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
De Graafschap
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ De Graafschap vs Willem II Form FAQs
What form are De Graafschap and Willem II in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 28W 11D 23L in their last 62 games (1.53 PPG), while Willem II have gone 34W 17D 11L in their last 62 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Willem II away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.77 PPG; Willem II away: 1.60 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or Willem II been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Willem II in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 28 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Willem II won De Graafschap 0-3 Willem II on 16 Dec 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 0W 1D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
De Graafschap
1
Draws
4
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ De Graafschap vs Willem II H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Willem II?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, De Graafschap have won 1, Willem II have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Willem II last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 March 2026: Willem II 0-2 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 71% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 47%, Willem II 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (De Graafschap) and 53% (Willem II).
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ De Graafschap vs Willem II Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in De Graafschap and Willem II matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of De Graafschap's games and 63% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are De Graafschap and Willem II matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of De Graafschap's recent games and 53% of Willem II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do De Graafschap and Willem II matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 77% of Willem II's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Willem II cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over De Graafschap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat De Graafschap 0-2 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 25, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.22 xG and Willem II 1.45 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. De Graafschap fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.14 / defence 0.88 against Willem II attack 1.27 / defence 0.66, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 30% | Draw 29% | Willem II 41%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 60%, Willem II 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Willem II's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.53 PPG, Willem II 1.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Willem II (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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