Roda 2-2 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Roda face ADO Den Haag.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Roda and ADO Den Haag meet at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 29). This fixture gets under way on Friday 8 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
Roda's record over their last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Roda's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
ADO Den Haag have collected 2.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
ADO Den Haag's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 2.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Roda, 1 for ADO Den Haag and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Aug 2023, ended Roda 3–0 ADO Den Haag — a Roda win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Roda — key trading statistics (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
ADO Den Haag — key trading statistics (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Roda 56% and ADO Den Haag 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 50% | ADO Den Haag 68%). Note also that ADO Den Haag surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Roda recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.70 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 1.155 / defence 0.739 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.123 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.366. Roda have a tight defence (rating 0.739), which is pulling ADO Den Haag's projected output down. Data: built from Roda's last 66 games and ADO Den Haag's last 66.
Result probabilities: Roda 49% | Draw 28% | ADO Den Haag 24%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.05 | Draw 3.64 | ADO Den Haag 4.23. Roda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Roda if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Roda's last 10 home games and ADO Den Haag's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Roda 50% (last 10 home games) | ADO Den Haag 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 29 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 8 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 49% | Draw 28% | ADO Den Haag 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Roda 1.70 / ADO Den Haag 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 1.155 / def 0.739 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.123 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Roda (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.13
ADO Den Haag xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Roda vs ADO Den Haag FAQs
What time does Roda vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
Roda vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 8 March 2024 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs ADO Den Haag?
Roda 2 - 2 ADO Den Haag.
Where is Roda vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs ADO Den Haag part of?
Roda vs ADO Den Haag is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 29) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 49% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Roda and ADO Den Haag will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Roda vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Roda's attack at 1.16x the league average against ADO Den Haag's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — ADO Den Haag's attack (1.12x) against Roda's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from Roda's last 66 games and ADO Den Haag's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
49%
2.05
28%
3.64
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Roda xG
Total xG
2.83
1.13
ADO Den Haag xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
18%
5.47
Win to Nil
16%
6.35
4%
23.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.3 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Roda vs ADO Den Haag Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Roda and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Roda and 1.13 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs ADO Den Haag?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 66 outings, Roda have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 27W 16D 23L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
ADO Den Haag's form line: 28W 20D 18L from 66 games, 1.58 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Roda against 1.58 for ADO Den Haag. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Roda have posted 1.82 PPG from their last 33 home games (18W 6D 9L).
On the road, ADO Den Haag have gone 14W 10D 9L from their last 33 away games — 1.58 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Roda are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 1.65 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ADO Den Haag in 67%.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Current Season
ADO Den Haag
Current Season
Roda (Home) vs ADO Den Haag (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Roda
Current Season
ADO Den Haag
Current Season
❓ Roda vs ADO Den Haag Form FAQs
What form are Roda and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 27W 16D 23L in their last 66 games (1.47 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 28W 20D 18L in their last 66 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or ADO Den Haag away?
Roda's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.82 PPG; ADO Den Haag away: 1.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Roda and ADO Den Haag, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 6 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
ADO Den Haag have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won Roda 5-0 ADO Den Haag on 21 Jan 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Roda have gone 1W 3D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against ADO Den Haag — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Roda
3
Draws
4
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ Roda vs ADO Den Haag H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and ADO Den Haag?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Roda have won 3, ADO Den Haag have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Roda and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 February 2026: Roda 0-3 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between Roda and ADO Den Haag?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 61%, ADO Den Haag 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Roda) and 58% (ADO Den Haag). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ADO Den Haag in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Roda vs ADO Den Haag Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Roda and ADO Den Haag matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Roda's games and 64% of ADO Den Haag's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Roda and ADO Den Haag matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Roda's matches and 58% of ADO Den Haag's.
Do Roda and ADO Den Haag matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Roda's recent matches and 73% of ADO Den Haag's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Roda and ADO Den Haag share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 29, as Roda and ADO Den Haag drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.70 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.13 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. ADO Den Haag outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 1.16 / defence 0.74 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.12 / defence 0.91, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 49% | Draw 28% | ADO Den Haag 24%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 50%, ADO Den Haag 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.47 PPG, ADO Den Haag 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Roda (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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