Cambuur 1-2 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cambuur vs De Graafschap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
De Graafschap travel to Cambuur Stadion to take on Cambuur in Eerste Divisie (matchday 29). The game is scheduled for Friday 8 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Cambuur stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Cambuur have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, De Graafschap have recorded 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, De Graafschap have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. De Graafschap are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Cambuur have won 1, De Graafschap 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 5.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 8 Dec 2023, ended Cambuur 3–2 De Graafschap — a Cambuur win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Cambuur in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
De Graafschap in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 60% versus De Graafschap 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 71% | De Graafschap 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 2.00 xG and De Graafschap 2.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.178 / defence 1.558 | De Graafschap attack 0.993 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.366. Cambuur's defence rating of 1.558 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing De Graafschap's projected output up. Data: built from Cambuur's last 28 games and De Graafschap's last 66.
Result probabilities: Cambuur 37% | Draw 22% | De Graafschap 41%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 2.72 | Draw 4.45 | De Graafschap 2.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS Yes probability 77% | Total xG 4.12. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.12 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 77% — both xG figures (2.00 / 2.11) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 4.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 78% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Cambuur's last 10 home games and De Graafschap's last 10 away games) averaging 3.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 77% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cambuur 100% (last 10 home games) | De Graafschap 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 29 | Venue: Cambuur Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 8 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 37% | Draw 22% | De Graafschap 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% (Under 22%) | BTTS Yes 77% (No 23%) | xG Cambuur 2.00 / De Graafschap 2.11 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.178 / def 1.558 | De Graafschap attack 0.993 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
2.11
De Graafschap xG
77%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cambuur vs De Graafschap FAQs
What time does Cambuur vs De Graafschap kick off?
Cambuur vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 8 March 2024 at Cambuur Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs De Graafschap?
Cambuur 1 - 2 De Graafschap.
Where is Cambuur vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Cambuur Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs De Graafschap part of?
Cambuur vs De Graafschap is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 29) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 37% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 41% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 77% probability that both Cambuur and De Graafschap will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cambuur vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cambuur's attack rating (1.18) and De Graafschap's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 2.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 2.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cambuur's last 28 games and De Graafschap's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.8%. Close behind: 2-2 (7.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
37%
2.72
22%
4.45
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
1 – 1
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Cambuur xG
Total xG
4.12
2.11
De Graafschap xG
2.72
37%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
77%
BTTS Yes
1.30
23%
BTTS No
4.37
Clean Sheet
12%
8.26
13%
7.43
Win to Nil
4%
22.51
5%
18.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 3.3 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cambuur vs De Graafschap Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.8%.
How many goals are Cambuur and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Cambuur and 2.11 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 4.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 62 outings, Cambuur have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 16W 10D 36L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
De Graafschap's form line: 30W 10D 22L from 62 games, 1.61 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-W.
Put side by side, De Graafschap are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cambuur.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cambuur have posted 0.90 PPG from their last 31 home games (8W 4D 19L).
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 12W 6D 13L from their last 31 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cambuur are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.03 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.65 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Current Season
De Graafschap
Current Season
Cambuur (Home) vs De Graafschap (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cambuur
Current Season
De Graafschap
Current Season
❓ Cambuur vs De Graafschap Form FAQs
What form are Cambuur and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 16W 10D 36L in their last 62 games (0.94 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 30W 10D 22L in their last 62 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 0.90 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Cambuur or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cambuur have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from December 2023. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 17 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Cambuur's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Cambuur
0
Draws
2
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Cambuur vs De Graafschap H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and De Graafschap?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Cambuur have won 4, De Graafschap have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and De Graafschap last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 April 2026: De Graafschap 3-1 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and De Graafschap?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 55%, De Graafschap 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Cambuur and 68% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cambuur vs De Graafschap Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cambuur and De Graafschap matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Cambuur's games and 58% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Cambuur and De Graafschap matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Cambuur's matches and 68% of De Graafschap's.
Do Cambuur and De Graafschap matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Cambuur's recent matches and 77% of De Graafschap's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as De Graafschap edge out Cambuur 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Cambuur 1-2 at Cambuur Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 2.00 xG and De Graafschap 2.11 xG, a combined 4.12. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cambuur fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.18 / defence 1.56 against De Graafschap attack 0.99 / defence 1.05, drawn from 28/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 37% | Draw 22% | De Graafschap 41%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 77% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 71%, De Graafschap 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
De Graafschap's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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