FC OSS 1-2 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC OSS at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC OSS vs Den Bosch encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC OSS and Den Bosch meet at Frans Heesen Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Friday 8 March 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
FC OSS (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC OSS have posted 4W 0D 6L at Frans Heesen Stadion — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Den Bosch's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Den Bosch's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. FC OSS's 1.50 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Den Bosch's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for FC OSS, 3 for Den Bosch and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2023, ended 0–1 with Den Bosch winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FC OSS — key trading statistics (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 46% versus Den Bosch 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 59% | Den Bosch 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.28 xG and Den Bosch 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.757 / defence 1.278 | Den Bosch attack 0.641 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.366. FC OSS's attack strength of 0.757 is below the league average — the 1.28 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 66 FC OSS games / 66 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 38% | Draw 32% | Den Bosch 30%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Den Bosch 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC OSS are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC OSS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: FC OSS 40% | Den Bosch 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 8 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 38% | Draw 32% | Den Bosch 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 51% | xG FC OSS 1.28 / Den Bosch 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.757 / def 1.278 | Den Bosch attack 0.641 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: FC OSS (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Den Bosch xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs Den Bosch kick off?
FC OSS vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 8 March 2024 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs Den Bosch?
FC OSS 1 - 2 Den Bosch.
Where is FC OSS vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs Den Bosch part of?
FC OSS vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 38% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making FC OSS the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both FC OSS and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Den Bosch?
Record (5 meetings): FC OSS 2W | Draws 0 | Den Bosch 3W.
What form are FC OSS and Den Bosch in?
FC OSS (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Den Bosch (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC OSS's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Den Bosch's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. Flip it around — Den Bosch's attack (0.64x) against FC OSS's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC OSS Win
38%
2.62
32%
3.17
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
FC OSS xG
Total xG
2.40
1.12
Den Bosch xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
12%
8.03
8%
11.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.2 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.0 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are FC OSS and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.12 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC OSS's recent record stands at 17W 9D 40L from 66 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 14W 13D 39L across 66 games — 0.83 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.91 PPG for FC OSS against 0.83 for Den Bosch. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC OSS have managed 11W 3D 18L from 32 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Den Bosch's away record stands at 4W 5D 23L across 32 trips, a 0.53 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC OSS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC OSS are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.08 scored and 2.06 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Current Season
Den Bosch
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 17W 9D 40L in their last 66 games (0.91 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 14W 13D 39L in their last 66 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or Den Bosch away?
FC OSS's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.12 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Den Bosch won 4-1 on 17 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC OSS have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC OSS
0
Draws
6
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 4, Den Bosch have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when FC OSS 4-2 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and Den Bosch?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 47%, Den Bosch 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for FC OSS and 59% for Den Bosch. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC OSS have failed to score in 31% of games; Den Bosch in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play Den Bosch?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of FC OSS's recent matches and 41% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC OSS vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of FC OSS's matches and 59% of Den Bosch's.
Do FC OSS and Den Bosch tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Den Bosch defy the odds to beat FC OSS 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat FC OSS 1-2 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.28 xG and Den Bosch 1.12 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Den Bosch outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.76 / defence 1.28 against Den Bosch attack 0.64 / defence 1.04, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 38% | Draw 32% | Den Bosch 30%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Den Bosch win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 59%, Den Bosch 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Den Bosch's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC OSS 0.91 PPG, Den Bosch 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Den Bosch win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.