Feralpisalo 1-3 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Feralpisalo at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Feralpisalo face Sampdoria.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Sampdoria make the trip to Stadio Leonardo Garilli to face Feralpisalo in Serie B (matchday 28). The match kicks off on Sunday 3 March 2024 at 15:15 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Feralpisalo have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

In front of their own supporters, Feralpisalo have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Sampdoria's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

On the road, Sampdoria have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Feralpisalo against 0.90 for Sampdoria. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Feralpisalo edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 23 Dec 2023, ended Feralpisalo 3–2 Sampdoria — a Feralpisalo win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Feralpisalo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

Sampdoria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feralpisalo 48% versus Sampdoria 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feralpisalo 52% | Sampdoria 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Feralpisalo 1.66 xG and Sampdoria 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feralpisalo attack 1.004 / defence 1.142 | Sampdoria attack 1.048 / defence 1.276. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.238. Sampdoria's defence rating of 1.276 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Feralpisalo's projected output up. Data: built from Feralpisalo's last 27 games and Sampdoria's last 27.

Result probabilities: Feralpisalo 40% | Draw 27% | Sampdoria 33%. Fair-value odds: Feralpisalo 2.47 | Draw 3.75 | Sampdoria 3.04. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.66 / 1.48) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Feralpisalo as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Feralpisalo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.14 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Feralpisalo's last 10 home games and Sampdoria's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Feralpisalo 50% (last 10 home games) | Sampdoria 70% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights