Sudtirol 1-0 Lecco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sudtirol at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sudtirol vs Lecco encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 28 as Sudtirol welcome Lecco to Stadio Marco Druso. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 March 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sudtirol — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sudtirol's home record at Stadio Marco Druso: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Serie B games this season, Lecco have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lecco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lecco have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Sudtirol carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.20 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sudtirol, 1 for Lecco and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2023, ended 1–2 with Lecco winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sudtirol in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Lecco in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 63% versus Lecco 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 52% | Lecco 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.46 xG and Lecco 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.798 / defence 1.064 | Lecco attack 0.791 / defence 1.434. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.227. Sudtirol's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 1.46 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Lecco bring a strong defensive rating of 1.434 — this is suppressing Sudtirol's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 65 Sudtirol games / 27 Lecco games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 45% | Draw 30% | Lecco 25%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Lecco 4.00. Sudtirol hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sudtirol are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sudtirol 40% | Lecco 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Lecco | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 45% | Draw 30% | Lecco 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Sudtirol 1.46 / Lecco 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.798 / def 1.064 | Lecco attack 0.791 / def 1.434 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Lecco xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Lecco kick off?
Sudtirol vs Lecco kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Lecco?
Sudtirol 1 - 0 Lecco.
Where is Sudtirol vs Lecco being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Lecco part of?
Sudtirol vs Lecco is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Lecco?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 45% chance of winning, Lecco a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Lecco?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Sudtirol and Lecco will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Lecco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Lecco?
Record (1 meetings): Sudtirol 0W | Draws 0 | Lecco 1W.
What form are Sudtirol and Lecco in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Lecco (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sudtirol's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Lecco's defensive record (1.43x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, Lecco's attack versus Sudtirol's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
45%
2.22
30%
3.32
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.50
1.03
Lecco xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
16%
6.24
6%
17.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.5 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Lecco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Lecco expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.03 for Lecco, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Lecco?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sudtirol's recent record stands at 8W 8D 11L from 27 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lecco, meanwhile, have gone 5W 6D 16L across 27 games — 0.78 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Lecco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sudtirol by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lecco heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sudtirol have managed 4W 3D 6L from 13 games — 1.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lecco's away record stands at 2W 4D 7L across 13 trips, a 0.77 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Sudtirol are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Lecco are on 1.00 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sudtirol have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 27 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Blended
Lecco
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Lecco in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 8W 8D 11L in their last 27 games (1.19 PPG), while Lecco have gone 5W 6D 16L in their last 27 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Lecco away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.15 PPG; Lecco away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sudtirol and Lecco runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Sudtirol
0
Draws
1
Lecco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Lecco?
From 2 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 1, Lecco have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Lecco last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Sudtirol 1-0 Lecco.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sudtirol see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Lecco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 46%, Lecco 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Sudtirol) and 62% (Lecco).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol have failed to score in 38% of games; Lecco in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Lecco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Lecco?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 62% of Lecco's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sudtirol vs Lecco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Sudtirol's recent games and 62% of Lecco's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Lecco tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Lecco in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sudtirol edge out Lecco 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol beat Lecco 1-0 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.46 xG and Lecco 1.03 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lecco landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.80 / defence 1.06 against Lecco attack 0.79 / defence 1.43, drawn from 65/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 45% | Draw 30% | Lecco 25%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 52%, Lecco 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Lecco's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sudtirol arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.78. That form edge translated into the three points. Sudtirol (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Lecco (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.