Modena 0-1 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Modena take on Cremonese.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Cremonese travel to Stadio Alberto Braglia to take on Modena. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 March 2024, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Modena have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D D D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Modena at Stadio Alberto Braglia this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cremonese stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Cremonese's 2.10 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Modena's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Modena, 1 for Cremonese and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Dec 2023, ended 0–4 with Cremonese winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Modena in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).
Cremonese in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 58% versus Cremonese 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 48% | Cremonese 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 0.92 xG and Cremonese 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.893 / defence 0.861 | Cremonese attack 0.874 / defence 0.817. League average goals — home 1.261 / away 1.243. Data: 65 Modena games / 27 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 32% | Draw 36% | Cremonese 32%. Fair-value odds: Modena 3.12 | Draw 2.78 | Cremonese 3.12. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.85 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates are neutral: Modena 60% | Cremonese 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Mar 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 32% | Draw 36% | Cremonese 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 38% | xG Modena 0.92 / Cremonese 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.893 / def 0.861 | Cremonese attack 0.874 / def 0.817 | league avg home 1.261 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Modena xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Cremonese xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Cremonese kick off?
Modena vs Cremonese kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 3 March 2024 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Cremonese?
Modena 0 - 1 Cremonese.
Where is Modena vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Cremonese part of?
Modena vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 32% chance of winning, Cremonese a 32% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Modena and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Cremonese?
Record (1 meetings): Modena 0W | Draws 0 | Cremonese 1W.
What form are Modena and Cremonese in?
Modena (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-D-D-D. Cremonese (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Modena's attack rating (0.89) and Cremonese's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.17
36%
2.77
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Modena xG
Total xG
1.85
0.94
Cremonese xG
3.17
32%
Home win
2.77
36%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
12%
8.07
13%
7.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 14.6 | 6.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are Modena and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Modena and 0.94 for Cremonese, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Modena come into this having played 65 games, going 21W 21D 23L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-D. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cremonese sit at 1.18 PPG from 65 outings (19W 20D 26L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Modena on 1.29 PPG, Cremonese on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Modena's home form reads 12W 12D 8L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Cremonese have taken 1.19 points per game from 32 outings (9W 11D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Modena are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.12 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 21W 21D 23L in their last 65 games (1.29 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 19W 20D 26L in their last 65 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Cremonese away?
Modena's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.50 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Modena and Cremonese runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Dec 2023, when Cremonese won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Modena's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Modena
2
Draws
2
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Cremonese?
From 4 meetings on record, Modena have won 0, Cremonese have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2025, when Cremonese 2-2 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Cremonese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Cremonese see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 50%, Cremonese 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Modena) and 53% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Modena have failed to score in 28% of games; Cremonese in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Modena's recent matches and 59% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Modena vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Modena's recent games and 53% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Cremonese tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cremonese edge out Modena 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Modena 0-1 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 0.92 xG and Cremonese 0.94 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Modena fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.89 / defence 0.86 against Cremonese attack 0.87 / defence 0.82, drawn from 65/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 32% | Draw 36% | Cremonese 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Cremonese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 48%, Cremonese 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Cremonese's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.29 PPG, Cremonese 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cremonese win broke the near-deadlock. Modena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Cremonese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.