Lecce 0-1 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lecce at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lecce vs Hellas Verona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Hellas Verona travel to Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare to take on Lecce. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 March 2024, 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lecce stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Lecce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lecce's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Lecce are significantly better at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare than their overall form suggests.
Hellas Verona — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hellas Verona's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lecce 0.50 PPG, Hellas Verona 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Lecce, 2 for Hellas Verona and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Lecce trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Hellas Verona trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecce 54% versus Hellas Verona 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lecce 37% | Hellas Verona 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecce 1.20 xG and Hellas Verona 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecce attack 0.864 / defence 1.322 | Hellas Verona attack 0.730 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.207. Data: 65 Lecce games / 65 Hellas Verona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lecce 36% | Draw 31% | Hellas Verona 34%. Fair-value odds: Lecce 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Hellas Verona 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lecce as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lecce offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lecce 60% | Hellas Verona 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecce vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Mar 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecce 36% | Draw 31% | Hellas Verona 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Lecce 1.20 / Hellas Verona 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Lecce attack 0.864 / def 1.322 | Hellas Verona attack 0.730 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Lecce (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Lecce xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Hellas Verona xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lecce vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Lecce vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare.
What was the final score in Lecce vs Hellas Verona?
Lecce 0 - 1 Hellas Verona.
Where is Lecce vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare.
What competition is Lecce vs Hellas Verona part of?
Lecce vs Hellas Verona is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecce vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Lecce a 36% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Lecce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecce vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Lecce and Hellas Verona will score (BTTS).
Will Lecce vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Hellas Verona?
Record (3 meetings): Lecce 0W | Draws 1 | Hellas Verona 2W.
What form are Lecce and Hellas Verona in?
Lecce (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Hellas Verona (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lecce's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Hellas Verona's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Hellas Verona's attack versus Lecce's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lecce Win
36%
2.81
31%
3.26
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Lecce xG
Total xG
2.37
1.17
Hellas Verona xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
11%
9.02
10%
9.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.9 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecce vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Lecce and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Lecce and 1.17 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecce vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 65 outings, Lecce have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 13W 22D 30L record — W-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Lecce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hellas Verona's form line: 13W 18D 34L from 65 games, 0.88 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lecce on 0.94 PPG, Hellas Verona on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lecce have posted 1.12 PPG from 32 outings (8W 12D 12L).
On the road, Hellas Verona have gone 3W 8D 21L from 32 away games — 0.53 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lecce come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lecce are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 0.86 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecce
Blended
Hellas Verona
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lecce and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Lecce have gone 13W 22D 30L in their last 65 games (0.94 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 13W 18D 34L in their last 65 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecce at home or Hellas Verona away?
Lecce's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecce at home: 1.12 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 0.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lecce and Hellas Verona runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Lecce's record when hosting Hellas Verona specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Lecce
4
Draws
3
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Hellas Verona?
From 8 meetings on record, Lecce have won 1, Hellas Verona have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lecce and Hellas Verona last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Hellas Verona 0-0 Lecce.
Who has won more matches between Lecce and Hellas Verona?
Hellas Verona have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecce 62%, Hellas Verona 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Lecce) and 38% (Hellas Verona).
On the defensive side: Lecce have failed to score in 28% of games; Hellas Verona in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecce home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lecce play Hellas Verona?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Lecce's recent matches and 47% of Hellas Verona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lecce vs Hellas Verona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Lecce's recent games and 38% of Hellas Verona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lecce and Hellas Verona tend to score early?
Lecce have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Hellas Verona in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hellas Verona defy the odds to beat Lecce 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hellas Verona beat Lecce 0-1 at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 1.20 xG and Hellas Verona 1.17 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lecce fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 0.86 / defence 1.32 against Hellas Verona attack 0.73 / defence 0.97, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecce 36% | Draw 31% | Hellas Verona 34%, with Lecce to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Hellas Verona win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 37%, Hellas Verona 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecce's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lecce 0.94 PPG, Hellas Verona 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hellas Verona win broke the near-deadlock. Lecce (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.