Bologna 0-1 Inter – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Inter at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Inter encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bologna host Inter at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Serie A, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 March 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Bologna are significantly better at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara than their overall form suggests.
Inter — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Inter, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inter away from home this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 away games — 2.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Inter are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 2.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Bologna, 2 for Inter and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 4.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Bologna in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).
Inter in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 58% versus Inter 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 51% | Inter 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.17 xG and Inter 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.294 / defence 0.659 | Inter attack 1.715 / defence 0.628. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.196. Bologna carry an above-average attack strength of 1.294 — their λ of 1.17 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Inter's defence strength of 0.628 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Inter have an above-average attack strength of 1.715 — the away xG of 1.35 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Bologna's defence rating of 0.659 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 65 Bologna games / 65 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 31% | Draw 30% | Inter 40%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Inter 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Inter as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inter offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Bologna 30% | Inter 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Mar 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 31% | Draw 30% | Inter 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Bologna 1.17 / Inter 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 1.294 / def 0.659 | Inter attack 1.715 / def 0.628 | league avg home 1.433 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Inter (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Inter xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Inter kick off?
Bologna vs Inter kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Inter?
Bologna 0 - 1 Inter.
Where is Bologna vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Inter part of?
Bologna vs Inter is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 31% chance of winning, Inter a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Bologna and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Inter?
Record (5 meetings): Bologna 2W | Draws 1 | Inter 2W.
What form are Bologna and Inter in?
Bologna (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Inter (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bologna's attack rating (1.29) and Inter's defence rating (0.63), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Inter's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
31%
3.26
30%
3.35
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.52
1.35
Inter xG
3.26
31%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
8%
12.61
12%
8.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.9 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Bologna and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Bologna and 1.35 for Inter, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Inter?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 65 outings, Bologna have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 28W 21D 16L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Inter's form line: 46W 6D 13L from 65 games, 2.22 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Inter is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Inter are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bologna.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bologna have posted 2.00 PPG from 32 outings (18W 10D 4L).
On the road, Inter have gone 20W 5D 7L from 32 away games — 2.03 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Bologna are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.15 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: Inter in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Inter
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Inter in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 28W 21D 16L in their last 65 games (1.62 PPG), while Inter have gone 46W 6D 13L in their last 65 (2.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Inter away?
Inter's away record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 2.00 PPG; Inter away: 2.03 PPG.
Have Bologna or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Inter in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bologna and Inter runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2021, when Inter won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bologna's record when hosting Inter specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bologna
3
Draws
4
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Inter?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 3, Inter have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Bologna 3-3 Inter.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 41%, Inter 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Bologna) and 62% (Inter).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Inter in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Inter?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Bologna's recent matches and 53% of Inter's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Bologna's recent games and 62% of Inter's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Inter tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Inter in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Inter edge out Bologna 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat Bologna 0-1 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.17 xG and Inter 1.35 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bologna fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.29 / defence 0.66 against Inter attack 1.72 / defence 0.63, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 31% | Draw 30% | Inter 40%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 51%, Inter 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Inter's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.62. Form held, and they took the win. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward. Inter (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.