Genoa 2-3 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genoa at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Genoa face Monza.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Monza make the trip to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to face Genoa in Serie A (matchday 28). The match kicks off on Saturday 9 March 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Form
Genoa (all games): 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Genoa at home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Monza have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Monza away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Genoa against 1.50 for Monza. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Monza edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 10 Dec 2023, ended Genoa 0–1 Monza — a Monza win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Genoa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Monza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 46% versus Monza 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 40% | Monza 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.18 xG and Monza 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.891 / defence 1.045 | Monza attack 0.834 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.193. Data: built from Genoa's last 27 games and Monza's last 65.
Result probabilities: Genoa 38% | Draw 32% | Monza 31%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.66 | Draw 3.15 | Monza 3.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genoa are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genoa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Genoa's last 10 home games and Monza's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Genoa 50% (last 10 home games) | Monza 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Monza | Competition: Serie A, matchday 28 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 9 March 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 38% | Draw 32% | Monza 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Genoa 1.18 / Monza 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.891 / def 1.045 | Monza attack 0.834 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Genoa (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Monza xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Genoa vs Monza FAQs
What time does Genoa vs Monza kick off?
Genoa vs Monza kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Monza?
Genoa 2 - 3 Monza.
Where is Genoa vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Monza part of?
Genoa vs Monza is a Serie A fixture (matchday 28) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 38% chance of winning, Monza a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Genoa and Monza will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Genoa vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Genoa's attack at 0.89x the league average against Monza's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Monza's attack (0.83x) against Genoa's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from Genoa's last 27 games and Monza's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
38%
2.66
32%
3.15
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.22
1.04
Monza xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
13%
7.53
9%
10.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 11.3 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Genoa vs Monza Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Genoa and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Genoa and 1.04 for Monza, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Genoa's recent record stands at 29W 20D 16L from 65 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-L in the last five.
Monza, meanwhile, have gone 23W 19D 23L across 65 games — 1.35 PPG, with D-D-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.65 PPG for Genoa against 1.35 for Monza. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Genoa have managed 17W 11D 4L from their last 32 home games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Monza's away record stands at 11W 9D 12L across their last 32 away games, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genoa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genoa are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.17 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Monza
Blended
Genoa (Home) vs Monza (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Genoa
Blended
Monza
Blended
❓ Genoa vs Monza Form FAQs
What form are Genoa and Monza in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 29W 20D 16L in their last 65 games (1.65 PPG), while Monza have gone 23W 19D 23L in their last 65 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Monza away?
Genoa's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.94 PPG; Monza away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Genoa or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Monza in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 27 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Genoa have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Monza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Genoa
0
Draws
2
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Genoa vs Monza H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Monza?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Genoa have won 2, Monza have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Monza last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 January 2025: Genoa 2-0 Monza.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 41%, Monza 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Genoa) and 44% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Monza in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Genoa vs Monza Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Genoa and Monza matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Genoa's recent matches and 41% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Genoa and Monza matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Genoa's recent games and 44% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Monza matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Genoa's recent matches and 69% of Monza's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Monza defy the odds to beat Genoa 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza beat Genoa 2-3 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.18 xG and Monza 1.04 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Genoa beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Monza outscored their 1.04 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.89 / defence 1.04 against Monza attack 0.83 / defence 0.93, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 38% | Draw 32% | Monza 31%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Monza win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 40%, Monza 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Monza's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genoa 1.65 PPG, Monza 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monza win broke the near-deadlock. Genoa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Monza (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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