PAOK 1-0 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates PAOK at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAOK vs Levadiakos encounter.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Toumbas plays host to PAOK versus Levadiakos in Super League 1 (matchday 20). Kick-off: Sunday 26 January 2025 at 17:30 UK time.

Form

PAOK (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

PAOK's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Levadiakos's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Levadiakos have posted 1W 5D 3L from their last 9 away outings — 0.89 PPG. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form ledger tips toward PAOK. A 0.50 PPG lead over Levadiakos (1.70 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from PAOK's last 10 home games and Levadiakos's last 9 away games) — PAOK have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Levadiakos in 78%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for PAOK, 0 for Levadiakos and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 6 Oct 2024, ended PAOK 2–0 Levadiakos — a PAOK win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

PAOK half-time and goal-timing data (last 19 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).

Levadiakos half-time and goal-timing data (last 19 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — PAOK 63% and Levadiakos 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 63% | Levadiakos 47%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: PAOK surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Levadiakos have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 60% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.54 xG and Levadiakos 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.167 / defence 1.162 | Levadiakos attack 1.034 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.186 / away 1.113. Data: built from PAOK's last 45 games and Levadiakos's last 19.

Result probabilities: PAOK 42% | Draw 25% | Levadiakos 33%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 2.37 | Draw 4.04 | Levadiakos 3.02. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is PAOK at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (PAOK's last 10 home games and Levadiakos's last 9 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: PAOK 60% (last 10 home games) | Levadiakos 78% (last 9 away games).

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