Lamia 0-2 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Aris Thessalonikis (45%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Lamia face Aris Thessalonikis.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lamia host Aris Thessalonikis at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias in Super League 1 (matchday 20). Kick-off is Sunday 26 January 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Lamia — last 10 games: 0W 2D 8L, averaging 0.20 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Lamia have gone 0W 3D 7L in their last 10 home games (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Aris Thessalonikis stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Aris Thessalonikis away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Aris Thessalonikis — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Aris Thessalonikis have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the 9 H2H matches we hold against 2 for Lamia.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.9 per game across the 9 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2024, ended Lamia 0–2 Aris Thessalonikis — a Aris Thessalonikis win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Aris Thessalonikis have won 5 of 9 H2H matches, and at 2.9 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Lamia in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Aris Thessalonikis in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 54% versus Aris Thessalonikis 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 60% | Aris Thessalonikis 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 0.93 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.639 / defence 1.185 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.984 / defence 1.220. League average goals — home 1.198 / away 1.104. Lamia's attack rating of 0.639 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.93. Aris Thessalonikis's defence rating of 1.220 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lamia's projected output up. Data: built from Lamia's last 45 games and Aris Thessalonikis's last 45.
Result probabilities: Lamia 27% | Draw 28% | Aris Thessalonikis 45%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 3.70 | Draw 3.52 | Aris Thessalonikis 2.24. Aris Thessalonikis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 9 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Lamia 40% (last 10 home games) | Aris Thessalonikis 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 20 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Sunday 26 January 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 27% | Draw 28% | Aris Thessalonikis 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Lamia 0.93 / Aris Thessalonikis 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.639 / def 1.185 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.984 / def 1.220 | league avg home 1.198 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Aris Thessalonikis xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis FAQs
What time does Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 26 January 2025 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Lamia 0 - 2 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 20) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 27% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lamia's attacking strength (0.64x league average) is weighed against Aris Thessalonikis's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. The same calculation in reverse, Aris Thessalonikis's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lamia's last 45 games and Aris Thessalonikis's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
27%
3.70
28%
3.52
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.22
1.29
Aris Thessalonikis xG
3.70
27%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
7%
13.41
18%
5.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 14.0 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Lamia and 1.29 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Lamia have picked up 0.80 PPG on a 10W 14D 31L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 24W 11D 20L from 55 games, 1.51 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Aris Thessalonikis are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamia.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lamia have posted 0.89 PPG from their last 27 home games (6W 6D 15L).
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 9W 5D 13L from their last 27 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamia are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.33 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
Lamia (Home) vs Aris Thessalonikis (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lamia
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
❓ Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis Form FAQs
What form are Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 10W 14D 31L in their last 55 games (0.80 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 24W 11D 20L in their last 55 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Aris Thessalonikis's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 0.89 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Lamia or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamia have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from October 2021. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 26 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Aris Thessalonikis have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 Nov 2022, when Aris Thessalonikis won Aris Thessalonikis 5-0 Lamia.
Lamia's record when hosting Aris Thessalonikis specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Lamia
2
Draws
6
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lamia have won 2, Aris Thessalonikis have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 January 2025: Lamia 0-2 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 52%, Aris Thessalonikis 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Lamia) and 41% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis in 37%; Lamia have failed to score in 37% of games; Aris Thessalonikis in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Lamia's recent matches and 41% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Lamia's recent games and 41% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Lamia's recent matches and 74% of Aris Thessalonikis's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Aris Thessalonikis cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Lamia 0-2 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 0.93 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.29 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lamia fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.64 / defence 1.19 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.98 / defence 1.22, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 27% | Draw 28% | Aris Thessalonikis 45%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 60%, Aris Thessalonikis 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.80. That form edge translated into the three points. Lamia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.