Volos NFC 0-1 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atromitos at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Volos NFC vs Atromitos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Panthessaliko Stadio plays host to Volos NFC versus Atromitos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Friday 24 January 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Volos NFC have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Volos NFC at Panthessaliko Stadio this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Atromitos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atromitos's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Volos NFC, 1.10 for Atromitos — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Volos NFC 3W, Atromitos 1W, 3D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2024, ended 2–1 with Volos NFC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Volos NFC half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Atromitos half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 52% versus Atromitos 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 56% | Atromitos 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.18 xG and Atromitos 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.912 / defence 1.344 | Atromitos attack 1.207 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.204 / away 1.119. Atromitos have an above-average attack strength of 1.207 — the away xG of 1.81 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 Volos NFC games / 45 Atromitos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 25% | Draw 23% | Atromitos 52%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 4.00 | Draw 4.35 | Atromitos 1.92. Atromitos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atromitos at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atromitos if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Volos NFC 50% | Atromitos 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Friday 24 Jan 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 25% | Draw 23% | Atromitos 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 58% | xG Volos NFC 1.18 / Atromitos 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.912 / def 1.344 | Atromitos attack 1.207 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.204 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Atromitos xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Atromitos kick off?
Volos NFC vs Atromitos kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 24 January 2025 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Atromitos?
Volos NFC 0 - 1 Atromitos.
Where is Volos NFC vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Atromitos part of?
Volos NFC vs Atromitos is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 25% chance of winning, Atromitos a 52% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Volos NFC and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Atromitos?
Record (7 meetings): Volos NFC 3W | Draws 3 | Atromitos 1W.
What form are Volos NFC and Atromitos in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Atromitos (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Volos NFC's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Atromitos's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. Flip it around — Atromitos's attack (1.21x) against Volos NFC's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.81.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
25%
4.04
23%
4.34
52%
1.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
3.00
1.81
Atromitos xG
4.04
25%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
1.91
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
16%
6.14
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
4%
24.82
16%
6.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 9.1 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.7 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.81 for Atromitos, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 52 outings, Volos NFC have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 14W 11D 27L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atromitos's form line: 13W 17D 22L from 52 games, 1.08 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for Volos NFC against 1.08 for Atromitos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Volos NFC have posted 0.96 PPG from 25 outings (6W 6D 13L).
On the road, Atromitos have gone 6W 8D 11L from 25 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Volos NFC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.15 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 14W 11D 27L in their last 52 games (1.02 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 13W 17D 22L in their last 52 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Atromitos away?
Atromitos's away record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 0.96 PPG; Atromitos away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atromitos won 0-3 on 19 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Volos NFC have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Atromitos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Volos NFC
3
Draws
3
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Atromitos?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 4, Atromitos have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Volos NFC 0-3 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and Atromitos?
Volos NFC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 68%, Atromitos 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Volos NFC and 60% for Atromitos. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atromitos in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play Atromitos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Volos NFC's games and 56% of Atromitos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Volos NFC vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Volos NFC's matches and 60% of Atromitos's.
Do Volos NFC and Atromitos tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atromitos edge out Volos NFC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos beat Volos NFC 0-1 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.18 xG and Atromitos 1.81 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Volos NFC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Atromitos landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.91 / defence 1.34 against Atromitos attack 1.21 / defence 1.07, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 25% | Draw 23% | Atromitos 52%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 56%, Atromitos 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atromitos's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Volos NFC 1.02 PPG, Atromitos 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atromitos win broke the near-deadlock. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line. Atromitos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.